Market focuses on China-US dialogue; Asian stocks rise, Samsung's gains expand to 5.2%, oil price falls for fourth consecutive day

High-level talks between China and the US released positive signals, turning market sentiment optimistic; Brent crude fell for the fourth consecutive session, temporarily alleviating inflation concerns.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on September 20 local time, China-US economic and trade negotiations were led by China's Vice Premier He Lifeng and the US delegation was headed by Treasury Secretary Besant and Trade Representative Greer in New York. Guided by the important consensus between the heads of both nations, and upholding the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, both sides engaged in frank, in-depth, and constructive exchanges around implementing previous economic and trade agreements, promoting bilateral trade and investment, and other key issues of common concern. Both sides also held a dialogue on topics related to artificial intelligence.

Asian stock markets saw tech shares lead gains, overall rising 0.8%, while Samsung Electronics' rally at one point expanded to 5.2%. The MSCI Global Stock Index is on track to record a three-day winning streak, marking the longest streak since late August. European and US equity index futures rose in tandem—S&P 500 futures up 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.6%. Brent crude fell 2.2% to $101.65 per barrel, continuing its four-session slide and marking the longest decline since June. The drop in oil prices further eased inflation pressures, with US Treasury futures also climbing.

Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield described the current market state as a "Goldilocks mood"—a convergence of falling crude prices, rising stocks, and mildly higher Treasury futures, and pointed out that the catalyst for this round of market movement has been the positive start to China-US talks.

• Korea’s Seoul Composite Index expanded its gains to 1.6%, with Samsung Electronics’ rise at one point widening to 5.2%.
• S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%.
• Yen fell 0.1% to $157.04
• Australia’s 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 5.28%
• Brent crude fell 2.2% to $101.65 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $98.06 per barrel
• Spot gold fell 0.4%, quoted at $4,352.32 per ounce
• Bitcoin rose 0.5%, quoted at $81,471.53

This week lacks major economic data releases, so investors’ attention will be focused on summit developments. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve last week raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the Bank of Japan also raised borrowing costs after a divided vote; moves from these two central banks continue to influence market expectations.

Bets on further Fed rate hikes have pushed investors toward high-yield positions in short-term bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed just below 5% last Friday, and due to Japan's holiday, spot bond trading will resume during the London session.

Regarding the yen, due to Japan's three-day holiday, market liquidity has thinned, increasing volatility risk. Last Friday, reports surfaced that Bank of Japan officials had phoned market participants to request quote information, triggering speculation about intervention preparations. The yen is currently stabilizing near 157 to 1 US dollar, having accumulated a drop of over 2% last week.

Gold softened slightly, quoted at around $4,352 per ounce. Australian and New Zealand government bonds followed US Treasuries lower last Friday. Wheat and corn futures rose, driven by upbeat tones from China-US trade talks.

In terms of energy supply, oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have risen to the highest level in six months over the past two weeks. US Central Command Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, stated in a video briefing on Saturday that the main channel of the strait has been cleared of sea mines and US military escort and mine-sweeping operations are "making progress." According to Cooper, Gulf allies have transported over 1 billion barrels of crude oil through the waterway over the past several months. "Momentum is clearly building," Cooper said. Improvements in the Strait of Hormuz’s shipping have provided support on the supply side for the recent retreat in oil prices.