Progressive's Underlying Loss Ratios Could Continue to Trend Higher, UBS Says

11:07 AM EDT, 09/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Progressive's (PGR) underlying loss ratio could continue to move higher as pricing trends remain below loss-cost inflation, while policies in force growth decelerates in an increasingly competitive landscape, UBS said in a note Friday. The company posted worse-than-expected underlying loss ratio in August, but the EPS beat was driven by better-than-expected net favorable reserve development and lower catastrophe losses, the note said. There was also a $19 million adverse actuarial reserve development in the commercial auto segment in August, which is historically the second-worst month for underlying loss ratios, according to the note. UBS reiterated its neutral rating on the stock and price target of $234 per share. Price: 213.45, Change: -0.03, Percent Change: -0.02