Gold Prices Rebound: Diplomatic Easing in Hormuz Lowers Oil Prices, U.S. Treasury Yields Remain Elevated

FX168 News, September 25—— During the U.S. morning trading session on Friday (September 25), spot gold remained firm while spot silver surged. Renewed hopes for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran drove oil prices lower; however, with U.S. Treasury yields staying high and continued expectations for Fed rate hikes, precious metals are still likely to close lower this week. Spot gold is trading around $4,290.60 per ounce, up 0.39% on the day; spot silver is trading around $64.446, up 0.96% on the day.

During the U.S. morning trading session on Friday (September 25), spot gold remained firm while spot silver surged. Renewed hopes for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran drove oil prices lower; however, with U.S. Treasury yields staying high and continued expectations for Fed rate hikes, precious metals are still likely to close lower this week. Spot gold is trading around $4,290.60 per ounce, up 0.39% on the day; spot silver is trading around $64.446, up 0.96% on the day.



This week, stronger U.S. economic activity data, lower initial jobless claims, and improved housing data have shaped mainstream market opinion that the Fed’s September rate hike is not the end of this tightening cycle, with trading positions biased toward further monetary tightening. Market pricing indicates a roughly 71% probability of the Fed raising rates by another 25 basis points in October; after touching a two-month high, the Dollar Index has pulled back and is currently quoted around 100.94; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains near 5.1%.

The U.S. August durable goods orders data was virtually unchanged; after July’s numbers were revised, they posted a 0.9% increase, while the market previously expected a 0.4% drop, so the data came in better than anticipated. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a 0.7% rise in July. This stronger-than-expected economic data is generally negative for gold prices. At 10 a.m. Eastern Time, final consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data will be released. The market is closely watching whether strong demand for goods will give the Fed more room to maintain tight policy.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.-Iran rivalry remain central risks in the crude oil market, but the latest market reaction shows that diplomatic efforts have eased supply concerns to some extent. In New York, U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing phased approaches to de-escalate the conflict. The proposals include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. lifting its economic sanctions on Iran; meanwhile, Houthi forces continue to attack Saudi Arabia, so regional crude supply remains threatened.

Brent crude is trading around $98.22 per barrel, down 8.42%; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is around $92.59 per barrel, down 2.14%. The pullback in oil prices will marginally weaken inflationary pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which is positive for gold; however, persistent shipping risk premiums continue to support safe-haven buying in precious metals.

Global stock market sentiment before the U.S. market open is generally strong, and buying in the artificial intelligence sector offsets concerns about oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and Middle East geopolitical risks.

The next bullish target for spot gold: to push the price above the $4,304.00–$4,345.00 resistance range; if this is effectively broken, the next level to watch is $4,396.00, followed by $4,400.00.

Short-term bearish target: if the gold price falls below $4,245.00; the deeper target will be $4,216.00, with subsequent focus on the $4,181.00–$4,216.00 range.

The first resistance is at $4,304.00, the second at $4,345.00; the first support is at $4,245.00, the second at $4,216.00.





The next bullish target for spot silver: to push the price above the $64.920–$65.830 range; if this is breached, subsequent targets are $67.231 and then $68.000.

Short-term bearish target: if the silver price falls below $62.750; the next deeper target is $62.350, then focus on $61.460.

The first resistance is at $64.920, the second at $65.830; the first support is at $62.750, the second at $62.350.