Although last week’s weekly K-line left a clear upper shadow, the actual bullish candle remained dominant, and the weekly trend continued upward. Since breaking through the key weekly structure, the market’s several corrections have not really retraced adequately; every time the price approaches significant support, funds quickly step in, with no sign of panic selling.
The current main characteristic is: the trend remains intact, but short-term movement is becoming increasingly difficult.
The Fear & Greed Index remains around 74, so the market is still in a greedy zone. A heated sentiment means bulls are in control, but it also means the risk-reward ratio for chasing higher at the current position is declining.
Both BTC and ETH have now entered a distinct low-volatility compression phase. On the 1-hour and 2-hour charts it is difficult to form a sustained trend, with more price swings and back-and-forth movement. Especially for ETH, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow and moving averages are closely intertwined; this state usually does not last long.
Therefore, the core approach for today remains:
Sell high and buy low within the box; do not chase until a breakout. Only switch to trend thinking after a clear breakout with increased volume.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Remain cautious on consolidation; large structure remains strong, wait for a breakout in the short term.
BTC is currently exhibiting a rather typical trend continuation compression structure.
The price is still above the main medium-to-long-term moving averages, indicating the previous upward structure remains largely unbroken, but short-term momentum has become neutral and the market is consolidating sideways to digest earlier gains.
The 7-day SMA is around 84,957, which is currently just above the price, suggesting that short-term capital is more inclined to wait for a pullback to enter, rather than chasing at the highs.
There is also a notable divergence on the derivatives front:
Some large traders remain bullish, but retail investors are showing a stronger willingness to sell actively.
Such divergence means the market may see another round of washout in both directions before establishing a true direction.
Therefore, 85,048 remains the first resistance. If volume increases and a breakout holds, watch 86,028 next; after further breakout, 88,158 is the more important target resistance.
On the downside, the 84,000–83,000 area forms the main support region for now.
Support: 84,000, 83,528, 83,000
Resistance: 85,048, 86,028, 88,158
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
Viewpoint: Extreme compression; sell high, buy low, focus on waiting for a breakout.
The level of compression in ETH is even more obvious than in BTC.
The amplitude of the last 30 K-lines is only about 2.76%; the MA5 is around 2,688 and the MA20 is about 2,688.39—the two moving averages are almost perfectly overlapped, showing that short-term long and short cost basis is highly concentrated.
This type of low volatility plus extreme moving average entanglement is essentially a build-up of new volatility.
The direction is still unclear, but once the price truly leaves the current box range, subsequent movement may accelerate significantly.
From the larger structure, ETH remains relatively strong. The former resistance zone of 2,560–2,660 has gradually turned into support, the weekly RSI stays in the stronger range, and MACD just turned bullish again, though momentum is still limited for now.
Thus, it can be seen as:
Bulls have a slight advantage, but still lack a true high-volume breakout candle for confirmation.
The current position is not suitable for frequent trading inside the range; it is more worth waiting for a signal near the 2,680 support or 2,725–2,765 resistance area.
Support: 2,680, 2,648 (to be confirmed), 2,613
Resistance: 2,698, 2,725, 2,742, 2,765
