Tesla Deliveries Are Coming but the Stock Has a Bigger Catalyst First -- Barrons.com

By Al Root

Tesla has a big week. It's slated to unveil the latest version of its futuristic Roadster on Thursday. After that it will report third quarter vehicle deliveries on Friday.

Shares of the EV maker were down 0.5% in premarket trading at $370.27, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. Energy markets were weighing on stocks. Benchmark oil price rose 2.5% in early trading.

Heading into the week, Tesla stock was up about 5% over the past month. Several factors have helped boost stocks, beyond the Roadster and expectations for a solid delivery number.

Tesla introduced its Cybercab robo-taxi into its self-driving taxi service earlier this month. And SpaceX stock was also up about 5% over the past month, mirroring Tesla shares' move. Oftentime, the two stocks trade together. Many investors and Wall Street analysts believe a merger between the two is inevitable with SpaceX likely paying a premium to Tesla's current stock price to combine the companies in an all stock deal.

As for deliveries, Wall Street projects 463,000 vehicles sold in the third quarter, according to FactSet, down from about 497,000 cars sold in the third quarter of 2025. The prior year's quarter, however, was boosted by the September expiration of the $7,500 Federal EV purchse tax credit. Buyers rushed to buy and keep that benefit.

"We forecast Q3 deliveries of approximately 446,500 vehicles, down 7% sequentially and 10% year over year, and modestly below FactSet consensus," wrote StoneX analyst Mickey Legg in a preview report.

He predicts a delivery miss. Still, Legg rates shares Buy and a $475 price target for the stock. Car deliveries just aren't the focus for Tesla analysts or investors these days. They are focused on AI efforts tied to robo-taxis and robots. Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, but scaling the service has been slow. Tesla is also building capacity to mass produce its humanoid robot, Optimus. Investors are waiting to see what the latest version of Optimus can do.

Given the focus, a delivery miss might not hurt the stock as much as in prior years, when EVs were the focus. (Tesla stock fell after strong second quarter deliveries.) Cars are still Tesla's largest business, though, and help fund the company's EV ambitions.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com.

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September 28, 2026 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT)