US Stock Market Preview | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, 10-Year US Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2002, Micron (MU.US) Experiences Volatility After Earnings

Pre-market Market Movements

1. On Thursday, October 1, before the US market opened, futures for all three major US stock indexes rose. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.41%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.43%, and Nasdaq futures gained 0.62%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index increased by 0.05%, the UK's FTSE 100 index dropped 0.91%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.49%, and the EURO STOXX 50 index slipped 0.34%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 1.34% to $91.63 per barrel. Brent crude increased 1.87% to $99.86 per barrel.

Market News

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond hits its highest level since 2002, and the US dollar index rises to a three-month high. The yield on the US benchmark Treasury bond has climbed to its highest level since 2002, while the US dollar index breached its pre-July high, reaching its highest level since the end of June. Persistent inflation, large-scale government borrowing, and strong economic growth have kept market rate expectations elevated. As oil prices rose, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury briefly increased by 4 basis points to 5.33%, surpassing the 2007 high. The 30-year US Treasury yield also hit its highest level since 2002. The US Treasury market has been experiencing a sustained decline for several months. Global government bonds are under pressure, with high oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict creating knock-on effects on the global economy, prompting investors to bet that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will raise rates further.

The US pressures Europe to release diesel reserves to lower oil prices. According to sources, the US government has informed Germany and France and requested that they use emergency diesel reserves to ease global fuel prices, or face a possible US diesel export ban. In recent years, the US has taken up a larger share of European diesel supply. With US retail diesel prices soaring and inflationary pressures threatening midterm election prospects, President Trump and his advisers held urgent consultations about whether to implement a diesel export ban. On September 30, Trump said he was still evaluating options to stabilize oil prices, including an export ban, while acknowledging that a ban could reduce diesel prices but might push up gasoline prices.

US-Iran negotiations stall as Rubio issues "expulsion order" to Iran's UN delegation. According to reports, after US-Iran negotiations stalled, Rubio on Monday demanded that Iran's UN delegation immediately leave the US, citing a US official and another source with knowledge of the matter. Although the Iranian delegation may have been about to leave the US soon, Rubio's move was a rare diplomatic rebuke, underscoring the deep-rooted mistrust between the US and Iran as efforts to broker an end to the conflict have yet to yield results. Qatar's mediators had previously tried to facilitate a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran but made little progress, with both sides unwilling to compromise. Iranian officials required to leave New York include Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi.

SoftBank completes final $10 billion additional investment in OpenAI, total investment reaches $64.6 billion. On October 1, SoftBank announced that through Vision Fund 2, it had completed the third and final additional investment in OpenAI, totaling $10 billion. This completes the previously announced $30 billion in additional investments. With this move, SoftBank’s total investment in OpenAI now stands at $64.6 billion, accounting for about a 13% stake. The funds for this investment come from foreign currency-denominated senior bonds issued by SoftBank on September 24.

US bipartisan senators propose AI liability legislation, requiring companies to be responsible for agent intrusions. US Republican Senator Josh Hawley and Democratic Senator Chris Murphy plan to introduce artificial intelligence liability legislation. Despite Trump’s clear stance that the industry should self-regulate, more Republicans argue for new laws. The AI Agents Accountability Act reportedly seeks to hold companies criminally and civilly liable for hacking incidents. The lawmakers believe current laws leave too much uncertainty about who is responsible when AI agents breach systems, marking a stark contrast with government officials who say current laws can address AI-related harms.

Japan to unveil details of the first five years of a major government investment plan ahead of release. The government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to finalize the detailed costs for the first five years of its $2.3 trillion, 14-year investment plan, marking the first step in clarifying uncertainties surrounding this massive plan. According to documents submitted to Japan's Growth Strategy Council on Thursday, the government will list domestic investment sectors and amounts through around 2030 by year-end, providing more details for its previously announced growth strategy. A Cabinet Secretariat official said the government also plans to specify public and private sector investment figures.

US and South Korea to launch $200 billion investment; Trump announces three major energy projects. President Trump stated earlier: “I met with President Lee Jae-myung of South Korea in New York, and we agreed to launch $200 billion in new investments in the US! Under the $350 billion Korea Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement I reached with President Lee last year, we will build American energy and American power projects nationwide. First, the US and South Korea will advance a $120 billion nuclear power project, building eight large nuclear reactors in the US—including six Westinghouse AP1000 reactors and two Korean APR-1400 reactors. Second, the US and South Korea have agreed to launch a $50 billion Alaska LNG project, tapping Alaska’s abundant resources, building new US natural gas infrastructure, and employing American workers. Third, a $22 billion large-scale gas-fired power project with 6.4GW capacity will be built in Exinard, Texas, adding a significant amount of reliable new power capacity to Texas.”

Individual Stock News

Micron (MU.US) shares volatile after earnings! Q1 revenue guidance beats expectations, CEO sees physical AI as the next big incremental market. For fiscal Q4 2026, Micron reported $54.229 billion in revenue, up from $11.315 billion a year earlier and above the market expectation of $50.584 billion. The company also issued stronger-than-expected sales guidance for the current quarter due to unprecedented demand driven by artificial intelligence. Q1 revenue is expected to be around $60 billion to $63 billion, while analysts’ average estimate was $56.8 billion. Micron anticipates tighter memory and storage supply-demand conditions in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than in 2026. Excluding certain items, profit will be about $38.15 per share, compared to the forecast of $36.02. Nonetheless, Micron shares fluctuated pre-market on Friday. On the earnings call, Chairman and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that besides datacenters, the next huge incremental market will be physical AI. “Autonomous vehicles are the first major deployment of physical AI, and we believe it will expand in time to humanoid robots and other intelligent autonomous systems.”

Accenture (ACN.US) delivers strong results, disregarding AI disruption fears. Accenture’s share price jumped after better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, temporarily alleviating growing concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) might disrupt the consulting industry. Quarterly revenue totaled $18.7 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectation of $18.03 billion. Adjusted earnings per share was $3.29, also above Wall Street’s expectation of $3.18.

AI giants such as Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Meta (META.US) question Anthropic's “overblown warnings.” According to sources, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and other tech executives questioned Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei during a White House event about his previous public warnings regarding risks such as cyberattacks and mass unemployment posed by AI models, calling his comments overly aggressive. Amodei replied that the industry needs to truthfully inform the public about AI model capabilities and potential risks instead of downplaying the issues. This discussion was held as Trump met with a dozen AI company executives to promote industry self-regulation. Anthropic has long advocated for stricter safety measures and has criticized some companies and governments for underestimating AI risks. Nvidia, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders support a more self-regulatory, pro-development approach to AI. Previously, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google considered establishing an AI oversight organization similar to a financial industry self-regulatory body, but plans were dropped over concerns from Huang, Zuckerberg, and SpaceX (SPCX.US) CEO Elon Musk that it could concentrate too much power among top AI firms.

TSMC (TSM.US) considering building a new campus in Texas to produce more AI chips. Sources say TSMC is exploring further overseas facilities to meet consistently strong demand for AI hardware. So far this year, North American operations have accounted for more than 75% of TSMC’s wafer revenue, with major chip design customers such as Nvidia and AMD (AMD.US) bringing large orders for their most advanced technology. If TSMC ultimately decides to invest in Texas, the project would include multiple chip fabs, each costing at least $20 billion. However, these plans are still at an early stage. The potential Texas investment also depends on whether US lawmakers extend an advanced manufacturing tax credit set to expire at the end of this year.

Broadcom (AVGO.US) to provide up to $42 billion loan to Anthropic for chip leasing. Anthropic's IPO prospectus revealed broad partnerships with a handful of large tech companies, including one with Broadcom. Their collaboration spans computing supply, equipment leasing, and financing. As part of this complex partnership, the IPO filing disclosed that Broadcom had agreed to provide up to $42 billion in loans to Anthropic to finance infrastructure expenditures. In turn, Anthropic is expected to become Broadcom’s largest chip design business customer next year. As part of the financing arrangement, Broadcom can designate a financing partner, and these debt instruments may be converted into Anthropic equity.

Netflix (NFLX.US) co-CEO says company's growth rate below expectations. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the company’s growth rate has not met his expectations. Speaking on Wednesday, Sarandos said: “Overall, our growth rate is not as fast as I’d like, and we are working to accelerate it. However, we are also doing things that put considerable drag on that number.” He noted that, even though Netflix achieved double-digit revenue growth in all regions, user engagement increased only 2% in the latest fiscal year. To drive growth, Netflix is expanding beyond its core business of movies and TV series, dedicating about 5% of its $20 billion content budget to live programming. The company also plans to broaden theatrical releases for some of its major films. Netflix shares have dropped about 24% so far this year. As the company continues to ramp up content spending, it expects revenue and profit growth to slow.

SpaceX (SPCX.US) considers adjusting Grok and X subscription prices. According to files, Elon Musk's SpaceXAI is considering adjusting subscription plans for the Grok chatbot and the social platform X, intending to launch a unified subscription service with four tiers. The free version will offer Grok access with stricter usage limits; the top "Ultra" plan is priced at $100 per month and includes Grok Bot AI agent capabilities, targeting high-frequency users. SpaceXAI also plans to introduce a $8/month “Lite” plan, providing Grok access, X platform verification, and fewer ads. SpaceXAI is currently competing with Anthropic, OpenAI, and others to improve AI product capabilities and expand its enterprise customer base.

Key Economic Data and Event Forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 26.

21:05 Beijing time: Speeches by Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid.

21:30 Beijing time: Speech by ECB President Lagarde.

21:45 Beijing time: US September SPGI Manufacturing PMI final reading.

22:00 Beijing time: US September ISM Manufacturing PMI, speech by Fed Governor Waller.

01:30 next day Beijing time: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson.

03:00 next day Beijing time: Speech by Fed Governor Bowman.

03:30 next day Beijing time: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams chairs a discussion at a Fed-hosted central bank seminar.

06:45 next day Beijing time: Speech by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan.

Earnings Preview

Friday morning: Nike (NKE.US)