US Stock Market Preview | All Three Major Index Futures Rise; Nonfarm Payroll Data Incoming; Toshiba HDD Expansion Plan Hits Storage Sector

Pre-market Market Trends

1. On Friday, October 2nd, before the U.S. market open, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose. As of this writing, Dow futures are up 0.46%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.46%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.58%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index is up 0.84%, the UK's FTSE 100 is up 0.11%, France's CAC40 is up 0.38%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.47%.

3. As of writing, WTI crude oil is down 3.09%, quoted at $90.00 per barrel. Brent crude is down 2.28%, quoted at $99.98 per barrel.

Market News

Nonfarm payrolls set to hit: New nonfarm employment in September is expected to drop to 90,000—tonight’s true "bombshell" may lie in whether there is a sharp downward revision to August data. The market expects 90,000 new jobs, below August's initial figure of 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, with average hourly earnings increasing 0.3% month-on-month. The anomalous seasonal adjustment and potential revisions for August are key variables in interpreting this report: a downward revision for the prior month along with stronger-than-expected September additions could both occur. Thus, the cumulative two-month increase and the revised trend will better reflect employment momentum than a single headline number. Initial and continued jobless claims, ADP, and corporate surveys generally indicate continued resilience in the labor market, but consumers’ perception of job opportunities is weakening, leaving room for surprises in either direction. Meanwhile, moderate inflation data and cautious statements from Fed officials have already reduced the likelihood of a rate hike in October from about 70% earlier this week to around 25% by Thursday, and Goldman Sachs has pushed the next expected hike to December.

After consecutive weeks of sell-off, the U.S. Treasury market finally saw a significant rebound, but traders have not changed their basic expectations for future rate hikes. As the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from a 24-year high, market attention turned to the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report due Friday night Beijing time: if job growth only cools moderately, the bond market may find it hard to sustain the rebound; only clearly weaker-than-expected jobs and wage data could force investors to scale back rate hike bets en masse. Bond traders now don’t simply need to see jobs continue to slow, but rather data weak enough to shake the Fed’s current tightening path. Goldman Sachs estimates CTAs hold about $390 billion in global bond shorts, with U.S. 10- and 30-year Treasury shorts both at or near 99%–100% of their historical maximum, while implied S&P 500 volatility is down to about 0.67%–0.70% on the day. If employment and wage pressures moderate, falling rates should ease the pressure on stock valuations; if the data is much weaker or prior months are revised down, it could further retreat rate hike expectations and spark a short squeeze in trend strategies, amplifying the rebound in bonds; if employment and wages are stronger than expected, it may reprice higher the probability of further rate hikes, exposing risk assets once again to the "good economic news, bad valuation news" effect. Another major potential "bombshell" of this report lies in the possible resonance between reassessment of the employment trend and crowded bond market positions.

Macron plans to convene G7 to stabilize oil prices; reserve release expectations drive oil pullback. French President Emmanuel Macron held a call with U.S. and Canadian leaders on October 2 and plans to convene a G7 leaders meeting as soon as possible to help rein in surging fuel prices, focusing on alleviating the global tightness in refined fuel supply. According to a statement from the French presidency, France—holder of this year’s rotating G7 presidency—is working closely with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to coordinate measures intended to alleviate price pressures and ensure crude and refined oil supply. Macron emphasized that G7 countries "acting together without imposing energy export restrictions is in our common interest." Europe-wide coordination is also progressing. European countries have been holding urgent consultations on how to respond to Washington’s calls to release strategic fuel reserves and to avoid a possible U.S. energy export ban. Given that Europe’s emergency oil reserve releases have significantly lagged the U.S. in the face of global market turmoil from geopolitical conflicts, the region still has substantial reserves available for release.

Iran reportedly preparing for “worst-case scenario”: if the U.S. resumes strikes, it will not be a merely symbolic retaliation. Several Iranian senior officials and sources said Tehran believes that if the U.S. launches large-scale attacks again, Iran cannot just respond symbolically, though relevant military plans are still under review and no final decision has been made. Since President Pezeshkian returned to Tehran from New York last week, Iran’s top officials and military leadership have been discussing the scope and timing of responses to potential renewed U.S. attacks. Three senior Iranian officials and a source familiar with the discussions said potential targets may not be limited to U.S.-related military assets, but could be expanded to countries supporting U.S. military action and even locations beyond the Middle East.

The Fed’s “number two and three” both deliver dovish statements, suppressing hawkish voices and cooling aggressive October hike expectations. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gave a speech Thursday that closely echoed remarks made earlier in the week by New York Fed President John Williams; both stressed the need for more time to assess data before deciding the next policy move. Since both “number two” Jefferson and “number three” Williams are part of Chair Powell’s informal core leadership group, their coordinated messaging was seen by markets as reflecting the collective will of the Fed’s top leadership rather than individual opinion. As a result, federal funds futures now put the probability of an October FOMC rate hike at roughly 25%, down sharply from around 70% earlier this week, with market focus shifting clearly to December. Even though hawks like Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also spoke Thursday—insisting inflation remains too high and more tightening is needed—their voices were overshadowed by Jefferson’s dovish stance.

Individual Stock News

Toshiba to splash 60 billion yen to expand HDD production and aims to double capacity; storage stocks weaken premarket as Seagate falls more than 13%. As of press time, U.S. HDD storage giant Seagate's stock plunged over 13% in premarket trading, as the market reassesses the supply and demand dynamics for HDDs in the context of AI data center expansion. On October 2, according to Japanese media, Toshiba plans to invest about 60 billion yen to expand its HDD plant in the Philippines, aiming to double its hard drive capacity for AI data centers by fiscal year 2027. For U.S. HDD giants Seagate and Western Digital, their competitor's massive expansion means that even though AI data centers' demand for high-capacity HDDs continues exponential growth, industry supply will also rise in tandem, possibly gradually easing the current tight supply-demand balance before the end of this year. Hence, the market is concerned about Seagate’s future market share and bargaining power. In recent years, AI data center expansion has steadily driven up demand for high-capacity HDDs. Compared to SSDs, which cost about 20 times more, HDDs remain a crucial option for large-scale data storage because of their cost advantage. Seagate stated in January this year that its nearline HDD capacity through 2026 was fully booked, indicating that industry supply remains tight. Toshiba's expansion sends a clear signal: AI-driven HDD demand growth continues, but manufacturers are starting to compete for incremental market share through capacity expansion and increasing drive density per disk. With both Toshiba and Western Digital scaling up, market focus is shifting from demand growth to whether additional supply will alter the current tight balance in the HDD industry.

Famed Apple leaker teases Apple’s next “killer device”: the first Siri AI home hub and touch-screen MacBook Pro could debut as early as October. Mark Gurman, a prolific source of accurate Apple leaks, has revealed several exclusives: the touch-screen MacBook Pro may debut soon in October; the Apple AI smart home hub is "stocked in global warehouses"; iPhone 18 Pro upgrades may be of questionable value; and Apple is moving from traditional media to influencer marketing. Gurman disclosed that internally code-named "J490," the AI-powered Smart Home Hub is the key breakthrough device: "This is Apple’s next ‘Big Thing,’ just weeks from launch," he emphasized. He noted that Apple's previous efforts in smart home (like iPod Hi-Fi and early HomePods) were "unfinished products," but J490 will change this. Described as "an Amazon Echo Show made by Apple for the Apple universe," the device features a roughly 6-inch square touch screen. Its biggest selling point is an all-new operating system. "What if Siri AI had its own OS, not just an app or interface on your phone? Here’s the answer," Gurman quoted, noting the system fuses Watch OS and StandBy mode features, "with voice as the primary interface element."

Broadcom (AVGO.US) syndicate moves to raise $60 billion, feeding chip 'ammunition' to Anthropic and others. According to sources, Broadcom (AVGO.US)'s Wall Street banking syndicate is working on raising $60 billion in fresh financing for AI chip purchases, benefiting Anthropic PBC and other companies. Sources say participating banks are preparing to issue syndication letters for a $42 billion A-class senior secured loan. As the deal is not yet public, those involved requested anonymity. Blackstone Group (BX.US) is reportedly leading an $18 billion B-class junior debt deal, pledging $9 billion from multiple funds, with plans to syndicate the rest. This financing, brewing for weeks, is under close watch from Wall Street and Silicon Valley professionals as they gauge investor appetite for AI infrastructure investment amid public pushback against data center construction. Broadcom aims to sell more chips and data center gear to challenge Nvidia (NVDA.US), while Anthropic and other AI companies need to keep expanding their computing power. Sources said in August that this prospective deal would help Anthropic and others access chips and other key AI infrastructure.

Google (GOOGL.US) ad tech monopoly damages lawsuit approved to proceed: Publishers can claim over $3.2 billion in total damages. A federal judge in New York has ruled that USA Today Co., Daily Mail General and Trust Plc, and a collective of major publishers can seek over $3.2 billion in damages for Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s ad tech monopoly. In a decision issued Wednesday night local time, U.S. District Judge P. Kevin Castel in Manhattan said he would allow a jury to hear how Google's ad trading platform AdX harmed major publishers. He found that a collective of about 5,000 publishers may claim $1.7 billion from Google and rejected Google's objections to damage calculations. He ruled that USA Today and Daily Mail, pursuing separate suits, may seek about $900 million and $600 million, respectively. In a statement, Google said the ruling also rejected claims by some publishers using different ad buying tools, and the company will "defend the rest in court."

Rumor: Anthropic sets investor day for October 14 ahead of planned November IPO. According to sources, Anthropic PBC will meet potential investors on October 14 for its initial public offering (IPO) preparations, despite scrutiny over AI safety, signaling it is pressing ahead with a potential blockbuster listing. Invitations for the event were just sent out, giving a select group of institutional investors an opportunity to question management. One source said the gathering will be held at Anthropic’s San Francisco headquarters. This timeline puts Claude’s developer on track for a projected November listing. Earlier reports suggested Anthropic could launch its IPO roadshow as soon as the week of November 9, allowing for trading to start before Thanksgiving. IPO details could still change, and sources requested anonymity as details are not yet public. An Anthropic spokesperson declined comment. Previously it was said that investors value Anthropic between $1.8 and $2 trillion, and the company expects its IPO to match or exceed that of SpaceX.

Key Economic Data and Event Preview

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. September unemployment rate, U.S. September nonfarm payroll employment (10,000s)

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. August factory orders MoM, 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan welcomes guests at the 5th "Macroeconomic Impacts of Immigration" conference.

Beijing time the next day at 01:00: U.S. total oil rig count for the week ending October 2