(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Friday, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report pulled Treasury yields lower, trimmed October Fed-hike expectations and added to safe-haven demand while Strait of Hormuz risk kept energy inflation in view. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,216.80 an ounce, up 0.96%, while spot silver was trading at $61.750, up 1.45% on the session.
The September employment report was the session’s main rate-pricing event. Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000, well below pre-release estimates clustered around 88,000 to 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% from a year earlier, with July and August payrolls revised lower by a combined 60,000 jobs.
Market positioning shifted quickly after the print. October hike odds fell into the mid-teens from roughly a one-in-four probability before the data and from near 70% earlier in the week, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped back toward the 5.2% area and U.S. stock futures rose. The softer labor-market signal helped gold and silver recover part of this week’s rate- and dollar-driven losses, but traders still have factory orders and manufacturing shipments at 10 a.m. ET, the New York Fed Staff Nowcast at 12:45 p.m. ET and Monday’s ISM services release at 10 a.m. ET before the next round of inflation data begins with CPI on Oct. 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The Strait of Hormuz story is no longer a simple crude-flow stoppage, but it is still an inflation and risk-premium problem. Crude exports from the Gulf have largely recovered toward prewar volumes as producers use pipelines, shuttle fleets and ship-to-ship transfers, yet refined-product flows remain impaired and recent tanker strikes have kept war-risk insurance, freight and diesel costs elevated. The larger U.S. military presence in the region reduces the probability of an immediate full closure in market pricing, but it also keeps U.S.-Iran escalation risk live. That leaves gold with a haven bid after the payroll miss, Brent still near $100 a barrel and the Fed facing a split signal from weaker labor data and oil-linked inflation pressure.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices weaker and trading around $89.41 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $101.12. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.2% area. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,203.65 to $4,225.28 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,248.24 and then $4,279.11. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,149.83, with deeper downside targets at $4,117.63 and then $4,063.81. First resistance is seen at $4,203.65 and then at $4,225.28. First support is seen at $4,149.83 and then at $4,117.63.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.737 to $62.327 area, with a move above that zone targeting $63.807 and then $65.090. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.258, with deeper downside targets at $59.368 and then $57.889. First resistance is seen at $61.737 and then at $62.327. Next support is seen at $60.258 and then at $59.368.
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