Muse user growth remains strong but long-term monetization prospects are still in doubt; BNP Paribas maintains Meta (META.US) with an "Outperform" rating.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Meta Platforms (META.US)’s AI agent Muse has continued to draw user attention since its launch last month. BNP Paribas, citing third-party data, noted that Muse has accumulated more than 5.6 million downloads and topped the Apple App Store charts. Its download performance in the early stage of its U.S. debut even surpassed OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Sora.

However, despite Muse’s strong user appeal, BNP Paribas believes that whether the product can convert its early hype into long-term active user engagement, and how it will achieve sustained monetization, remain issues that investors need to pay attention to.

BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones maintained an “outperform” rating on Meta in his latest report, with a target price of $885. He pointed out that Meta’s vast social platform user base gives Muse a clear advantage in promotion, but the product is still in the early stage of cultivating user habits.

Outstanding Download Performance in Early Launch Phase — Meta’s Social Ecosystem Drives User Growth

According to third-party data cited by BNP Paribas, Muse has accumulated more than 5.6 million downloads since its launch in September, at one point topping the Apple App Store charts.

Jones said that compared to other AI platforms, Muse’s early U.S. downloads surpassed those of ChatGPT and Sora. He believes this result is unsurprising, since Meta’s Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook boast a massive existing user base, which serves as a natural promotion channel and traffic source for Muse.

Unlike independent AI apps that need to build a user base from scratch, Meta can leverage the reach of its existing social products to enhance new product market exposure and reduce user acquisition costs.

It is noteworthy that OpenAI’s video generation application Sora quickly rose to popularity last year, but has since been integrated into ChatGPT and is no longer operated as a standalone app.

However, rapid growth in download numbers does not necessarily mean Muse has established stable user habits. Jones pointed out that Muse’s app open rate has now stabilized, but remains below that of mature applications like Google, ChatGPT, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook. In his view, this indicates that although Muse has successfully attracted many users to try it out, it is still some distance from becoming a tool that consumers use frequently in their daily lives.

For Meta, the next critical phase will not just be about growing downloads, but about improving user retention rates, usage frequency, and long-term engagement.

Difficult to Disrupt Vertical Platforms in the Short Term — User Experience Still Needs Improvement

As AI agents gradually acquire capabilities in information search, product comparison, and transaction execution, the market has begun to pay attention to whether such products could pose a competitive threat to e-commerce, travel, and other vertical service platforms.

However, BNP Paribas believes it is not appropriate to overestimate the impact of Muse on these platforms at this stage. Jones said that while Muse achieved a strong initial market response, given its limited user reach for now and lack of direct goods or service supply, comprehensive transaction experience, and customer service capabilities typical of vertical platforms, it is still difficult for Muse to be a substantial threat in the short term.

For example, specialized e-commerce or travel platforms not only provide information search and recommendations but also feature inventory, transaction processing, order management, and after-sales support – a complete system. In contrast, even if an AI agent helps users discover products or services, it may not be able to independently facilitate the entire transaction process.

Therefore, whether Muse can further change consumer shopping and service usage habits depends on whether Meta can continue to enhance related functions and expand cooperation with external merchants.

Long-term Monetization Model Still Uncertain — Advertising May Be a Major Breakthrough

Aside from user growth and product features, Muse’s commercialization path is also a key focus for BNP Paribas. For a long time, Meta’s main source of revenue has been advertising. However, for consumer-facing AI agents like Muse, there is no clear answer yet as to how the company will build a mature revenue model in the future.

According to Jones’ analysis, Muse currently appears to monetize in part by charging small transaction fees to partners. Meanwhile, Muse adopts a combination of free basic services and paid subscriptions: the basic version is open for free, while users with higher needs can opt for a monthly fee to access higher quotas.

Jones believes this pricing strategy helps Meta expand its user base and boost engagement in the early stages of product development, rather than focusing too early on maximizing revenue. However, he emphasized that Muse’s long-term monetization ability remains a key issue for investors.

Given Meta’s experience and resources in digital advertising, BNP Paribas believes that as user engagement with Muse increases, advertising could become an attractive commercialization direction in the future. This means Muse’s future revenue may not be limited to subscriptions and transaction commissions, but could gradually expand into advertising. However, with user habits yet to be fully established, whether these business models can yield considerable revenue remains to be seen.

OpenAI Launches Dots — Competition in Consumer AI Agents May Further Intensify

In addition to Muse’s own development, BNP Paribas is also watching competitive shifts in the consumer AI agent market. OpenAI’s new product Dots, launched this week, has attracted analyst attention. Jones believes the extent to which Dots gains user recognition in the future will be an important indicator of this market’s competitive landscape.

At the same time, the market is also watching to see whether companies like SpaceX (SPCX.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US, GOOG.US), and other tech firms will launch competitive consumer AI agent products.

As more companies explore using AI to accomplish complex tasks, competition in the consumer AI agent market could gradually shift from model performance to product experience, user retention, service integration, and monetization capabilities.

For Meta, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook provide important user distribution channels, but whether these advantages can be translated into sustained demand for Muse still needs more time to be validated.