Update: Nasdaq Extends Weekly Winning Streak Amid Fed Pause Bets
MT newswire2026/10/02 20:52Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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The 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 5.4%, with the AI halo unable to hide the "inflated" risks of the S&P 500
Behind the S&P 500's record high, only 30% of its constituent stocks are above their 50-day moving average, marking the narrowest market breadth at a record high since 1990. The Russell 2000 has fallen for five consecutive weeks, and high-yield bond yields have soared to 15%. Societe Generale warns that if US Treasury yields rise to 6% and oil prices reach $150, the S&P 500 could fall by more than 20% next year. In addition, some top-performing fund managers have completely exited AI stocks in favor of energy, stating that once financing dries up, it will be "game over."
Oil tanker freight reaches a sixty-year high: shipping oil from the US to China is more expensive than launching a rocket!
The freight for a single barrel of crude oil has soared to $41, approaching half the oil price, and for a single trip, the freight was once enough to buy an oil tanker. The Middle East crisis has led to a structural shortage of shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with ship-to-ship transfers extending turnaround times. VLCC freight rates have skyrocketed from an annual average of $9.2 million to $77 million—an increase of more than eight times. Refiners’ profits are being rapidly eroded, the average price of second-hand oil tankers has reached a historic high, and, unusually, surpassed the price of new vessels.
