In the past seven days, the average daily crude oil throughput in the Strait of Hormuz was 10.3 million barrels, only 76% of the pre-war level.

(1) The euro continues to weaken, becoming the latest warning sign as France's soaring borrowing costs spread to the broader eurozone market. On Monday, the euro fell below 1.12 against the US dollar, hitting a 17-month low, and also dropped significantly against the British pound, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. (2) The French government is pushing a controversial 2027 budget plan aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit and controlling record debt. However, deep divisions in parliament and parties preparing for next year's presidential election make this goal difficult to achieve. Investors are selling French government bonds and shifting to German bunds for safety. The yield spread between French and German bonds has reached its widest level since the eurozone debt crisis of 2010–2012, raising market concerns about the risk spreading to other eurozone countries. (3) Analysts state that the factors that supported the euro this summer have disappeared. Previous market expectations that the energy shock would be brief and that the US intended to push the dollar lower have faded. According to Bank of America, every 10 basis point widening of the France-Germany spread could lower the euro/dollar by 0.4%; Goldman Sachs says this effect could intensify significantly during periods of severe market stress. (4) Andreas König, Global Head of FX at AXA Investment Managers, noted that the euro/dollar pair is usually more influenced by US news, but Europe is also having an impact this time; he does not expect a turnaround in the medium term and continues to overweight the US dollar. CFTC positions show traders are bearish on the euro, and the three-month euro risk reversal indicator fell last Friday to its most bearish level since 2024. (5) Analysts suggest the euro may test $1.10; Societe Generale's Juckes also highlights the euro's vulnerability to the yen and Swiss franc, noting that the euro has fallen nearly 4% against the yen in September.

According to the latest estimates from Morgan Stanley, Nvidia has secured approximately 37.3% of the global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply for 2027. Its long-term supply commitments have surged from $119 billion in the previous quarter to $279 billion (about 1.87 trillion RMB). Nvidia’s supply commitments are not evenly distributed. According to the financial report, around $92 billion will mature during the remainder of fiscal year 2027, $87 billion in fiscal 2028, and $88 billion in fiscal 2029. The cost per GB of HBM4 has jumped from $17–18 during the HBM3e era to $31–32, nearly doubling. Bernstein predicts that HBM4 pricing may further rise to $53 per GB in 2027, and UBS estimates that the average HBM price overall in 2027 will be about 79% higher than in 2026. It should be noted that the production capacity of the three major memory manufacturers has already been fully booked in advance. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated clearly during the October 1 earnings call that the majority of HBM supply in 2027 has already been secured via agreements, and there is currently no sign of a supply-demand balance being restored. Samsung also stated that customers have pre-ordered 2027 demand in advance, and the supply gap is expected to further widen compared to 2026.

According to Al Jazeera, former U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized that the higher prices paid by American consumers at gas stations are a “small price to pay for maintaining world security and ensuring national safety.” Trump made these remarks during a campaign rally in Grand Island, Nebraska. While claiming that current oil prices are lower than those during the Biden administration, Trump also stated that gasoline prices would drop to below $1.85 per gallon (approx. 3.8 liters) “in a very short time.” He reiterated that this could happen before the November 3rd midterm elections or shortly thereafter. Trump said, “Please understand, we are saving this country… and indeed the whole world from what could be the most severe disaster in history,” and again stressed that the United States would never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons.

According to Zhitong Finance, McDonald's (MCD.US) is facing a class action lawsuit in a federal court in Chicago, accusing the fast-food giant of illegally manipulating menu prices between its franchised and company-owned restaurants by using an artificial intelligence (AI) pricing system.