The U.S. blockade against Iran has caused at least 50 oil tankers to be stranded in nearby waters.

(1) Vietnam is vigorously promoting the use of LNG to meet the surging electricity demand, but related projects are seriously behind schedule, with only 1 out of 18 LNG power generation projects expected to be completed on time. (2) Vietnam’s Minister of Industry and Trade, Le Minh Hoan, stated at a government meeting last week that the total installed capacity of these proposed projects exceeds 20 gigawatts, but only the Xi Fu LNG project is proceeding as planned. Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Truong Quang Hoai, said at the same meeting that investors have been selected for 16 of the 18 projects, but only two projects have started construction. (3) Project delays threaten Vietnam’s plan to increase the proportion of LNG in its energy mix to 12% by 2030. The Ministry of Industry and Trade warned last month that, due to these delays, Vietnam may face a risk of power shortages next year.

(1) According to the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), the U.S. blockade of Iran has resulted in dozens of fully loaded oil tankers stranded along Iran's coast, while some other tankers are anchored outside the Persian Gulf near Sri Lanka. (2) In its routine shipping update released on October 5, UANI stated that at least 50 oil tankers carrying Iranian oil remain stranded near Iran, which is largely unchanged from two months ago. These ships are mainly loaded with crude oil, although some are transporting petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas. (3) UANI also noted that, in other waters, some empty vessels are “anchored at various locations in the Indian Ocean and Pacific region due to the U.S. blockade, rather than returning to Iranian ports.” Currently, 20 Iran-flagged vessels are anchored near Sri Lanka, and 1 is located near Oman.

(1) The euro continues to weaken, becoming the latest warning sign as France's soaring borrowing costs spread to the broader eurozone market. On Monday, the euro fell below 1.12 against the US dollar, hitting a 17-month low, and also dropped significantly against the British pound, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. (2) The French government is pushing a controversial 2027 budget plan aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit and controlling record debt. However, deep divisions in parliament and parties preparing for next year's presidential election make this goal difficult to achieve. Investors are selling French government bonds and shifting to German bunds for safety. The yield spread between French and German bonds has reached its widest level since the eurozone debt crisis of 2010–2012, raising market concerns about the risk spreading to other eurozone countries. (3) Analysts state that the factors that supported the euro this summer have disappeared. Previous market expectations that the energy shock would be brief and that the US intended to push the dollar lower have faded. According to Bank of America, every 10 basis point widening of the France-Germany spread could lower the euro/dollar by 0.4%; Goldman Sachs says this effect could intensify significantly during periods of severe market stress. (4) Andreas König, Global Head of FX at AXA Investment Managers, noted that the euro/dollar pair is usually more influenced by US news, but Europe is also having an impact this time; he does not expect a turnaround in the medium term and continues to overweight the US dollar. CFTC positions show traders are bearish on the euro, and the three-month euro risk reversal indicator fell last Friday to its most bearish level since 2024. (5) Analysts suggest the euro may test $1.10; Societe Generale's Juckes also highlights the euro's vulnerability to the yen and Swiss franc, noting that the euro has fallen nearly 4% against the yen in September.

According to the latest estimates from Morgan Stanley, Nvidia has secured approximately 37.3% of the global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply for 2027. Its long-term supply commitments have surged from $119 billion in the previous quarter to $279 billion (about 1.87 trillion RMB). Nvidia’s supply commitments are not evenly distributed. According to the financial report, around $92 billion will mature during the remainder of fiscal year 2027, $87 billion in fiscal 2028, and $88 billion in fiscal 2029. The cost per GB of HBM4 has jumped from $17–18 during the HBM3e era to $31–32, nearly doubling. Bernstein predicts that HBM4 pricing may further rise to $53 per GB in 2027, and UBS estimates that the average HBM price overall in 2027 will be about 79% higher than in 2026. It should be noted that the production capacity of the three major memory manufacturers has already been fully booked in advance. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated clearly during the October 1 earnings call that the majority of HBM supply in 2027 has already been secured via agreements, and there is currently no sign of a supply-demand balance being restored. Samsung also stated that customers have pre-ordered 2027 demand in advance, and the supply gap is expected to further widen compared to 2026.