WTI posts modest gains above $88.50 on unexpected EIA draw, Middle East conflicts in focus
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $88.55 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. WTI posts modest gains as US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week. Traders will focus on fresh Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and continuing oil flows out of the Middle East.
US crude oil inventories showed a surprise draw last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending October 2 fell by 3.186 million barrels, compared to an increase of 922,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a rise of 1.9 million barrels.
However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to accelerate a release of strategic oil stocks in an effort to address surging fuel prices. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the WTI price. The IEA has deployed about 325 million barrels of oil under the March emergency action plan to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war.
Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost the black gold in the near term. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen launched fresh strikes on Saudi Arabia. Saudi-led coalition said that it retaliated against the Houthis, adding that the attacks "will not go unpunished.” The coalition said on Wednesday that it had attacked more than 80 Houthi military sites across the governorates of Saada, Hodeidah, Jawf, and Marib.
CTA flows in WTI crude track systematic response across tapes
According to TD Securities, trend-following commodity trading advisors remain net long WTI Crude, with current exposure described as “23.0%” of maximum historical size and an upside trigger level flagged at “$97.70.” The bank’s “CTA Positioning Estimate (rhs) WTI Crude Prices” framework maps how systematic positioning could evolve across different market regimes, distinguishing between “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, downtape,” “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, flat tape,” “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, uptape,” and “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, big uptape” scenarios through the forecast horizon.
Technical Analysis: WTI holds below the 20-day SMA, with bearish momentum
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of WTI US Oil turns bearish, as price has slipped back under the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average, leaving it capped beneath the recent volatility midline while still holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The lower Bollinger band reinforces a soft demand area just above the longer-term trend floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.33 drifts below the midline and hints at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band at $92.50, with a stronger barrier coming in at the upper band near $99.90, where prior buying pressure could fade again. On the downside, initial support is seen at the lower Bollinger band around $85.05, followed by the 100-day SMA at $84.15, a level that would need to hold to prevent a deeper corrective slide toward the mid-$80s.
(This story was corrected at 01:15 GMT on Thursday to say, in the second bullet point, that crude oil inventories fell by 3.186 million barrels in the week ended October 2, rather than rose.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
From Hugging Face to Figure Robots: How NVIDIA Is Betting Billions on the Future of the AI Ecosystem
Jensen Huang is personally leading the $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face and negotiating an additional $1 billion investment in Figure Robotics. To mitigate the risk of "three major customers contributing 44% of revenue," Nvidia is restructuring its landscape with transactions exceeding $140 billion, making heavy bets on humanoid robots and local AI. The core strategy is to use capital to create a "thousand-model era," supporting massive application scenarios to break the monopoly of tech giants and firmly anchor future computing power demand.
Former US Treasury Secretary Rubin Warns: AI Boom May Bring Productivity Dividends But Also Poses Financial and Social Risks
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin has warned that while the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom may bring significant productivity gains, it could also create financial and social risks that the market has not yet fully priced in.
Betting on 'U.S. Treasury yields plunging', bullish options trading volume for long-term U.S. Treasury and utility sector U.S. stock ETFs surges
The increasing activity in long-term U.S. Treasury options “very directly” reflects traders’ expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Utility stocks have added a new logic due to rising power demand from AI data centers. Historically, whenever U.S. Treasury yields retreat, these two sectors are often the first to benefit and see sharp rebounds. Analysts believe that the battle between high interest rates and the AI frenzy has become the core narrative in the current market.
Impact of Surging US Treasury Yields: US Stock PE Ratio Shrinks Significantly, Mag 7 Dominates Small Caps
The 10-year US Treasury yield has reached a 24-year high, quietly reshaping the landscape of the US stock market. The S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio has compressed from 22.2 times at the beginning of the year to 19.3 times, marking a “three-tier decline in valuation.” Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index is approaching technical correction territory, while Mag 7 stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia continue to support the broader market with the AI narrative and strong earnings. Market concentration is nearing historic extremes.
Crypto prices
More
