Everbright Futures 1009 Gold Review: Intensified Long-Short Game, Is Gold Rebounding or a Bull Trap?

Overnight, London spot precious metals experienced volatile fluctuations. After a rapid decline in gold prices in the early session, there is a need for an oversold rebound; in addition, a slight pullback in long-term US Treasury yields and the US dollar retreating from its high are providing short-term support for gold prices. Regarding economic data, US initial jobless claims data show that employment resilience remains strong. The Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations for December have not been completely dispelled, so the upside remains limited. In the short term, gold is maintaining a bottom-level consolidation.

On the data front, figures from the US Department of Labor show that for the week ending October 3, initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 197,000, lower than the market expectation of 200,000, and have remained near the 57-year low for four consecutive weeks. This indicates the US labor market maintains a certain degree of resilience. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that further rate hikes are still needed to push inflation down to the 2% target, but it is not necessary to raise rates at consecutive meetings. He also said the dot plot shows rate cuts only after early 2027 following rate hikes. On the geopolitical front, the Middle East conflict escalated again, briefly driving oil prices sharply higher; however, Trump later said there would be no attack on Iran before the election, easing geopolitical tensions. Gold’s price movement has shown sensitivity to the "inflation-interest rate" transmission chain. Thus, the escalation of Middle East tensions, the strong performance of oil prices, and the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar have ultimately resulted in gold prices maintaining a slightly weak performance.

Written by: Li Qi

Professional Qualification: F3046227

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0016145

Editor: Zhu Henan