319 Cybercab Cars Become a New Battleground: Tesla (TSLA.US) Valuation Game Shifts Track, Autonomous Fleet Data Become Wall Street’s New Benchmark

According to English Odaily, records from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) show that Tesla (TSLA.US) registered 150 new Cybercab (driverless taxi) vehicles in a single day on October 8, bringing the total from 169 to 319—a record single-day increase since this model was added to the registration system on August 31. With an additional 420 modified Model Y vehicles, Tesla’s autonomous fleet in Texas has grown to about 739 vehicles.

Following this news, Tesla shares rose nearly 1% overnight. Previously, Tesla’s Q3 delivery volume exceeded expectations and once pushed the stock up nearly 5% in a single day, but deliveries were still down about 2% year-on-year; as of early October, the stock price had still fallen about 18% year-to-date, making it the only “Magnificent Seven” tech stock with negative returns so far this year.

Against the backdrop of a pressured core automotive business, data on Robotaxi expansion has had a significantly amplified marginal effect on the share price, leading to a stark split on Wall Street over the surge in registrations. Target prices range from $24.86 to $600—a difference of more than 23 times—an unusual level of divergence among large caps. This reflects the market’s unresolved debate on whether Tesla is fundamentally an automotive company or an AI platform, with Cybercab fleet data serving as ammunition for both bulls and bears.

Bulls: Fleet Size is the Catalyst for Re-rating Valuation

On October 8, Tigress Financial reiterated its “Buy” rating with a target price of $550, implying about 47% upside from current levels—one of the highest target prices in the past three months. The firm lists the Cybercab autonomous taxi as one of Tesla’s top five growth drivers, along with FSD subscriptions, Optimus robots, energy business, and SpaceX synergies, all forming a “physical AI growth flywheel” that supports Tesla’s “accelerating growth and long-term shareholder value creation.”

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives holds an even more bullish stance with a $600 target—the highest on Wall Street. He believes the autonomous driving and AI businesses are worth “at least” $1 trillion, and Tesla’s valuation could reach $2–3 trillion in the next year or two.

Additionally, Tom Narayan at RBC Capital Markets reiterated his “Buy” rating and $480 target on October 2; Stifel maintained a “Buy” with a $491 target; Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald both sustained “Overweight” ratings; and Deutsche Bank also kept its “Buy” with a $420 target. In general, the bulls view Robotaxi as Tesla’s key lever for transitioning from an “automotive valuation” to a “platform valuation.”

Neutral: Recognize the Direction, But Demand More Evidence of Delivery

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintains a “Neutral” rating with a $400 target. The firm’s framework is quite representative: ongoing expansion of the unsupervised fleet is the most critical KPI to track Tesla’s autonomous driving business in the second half of the year, and true valuation re-rating hinges on scaled deployment—not just “a handful of vehicles on the road.” In its sum-of-the-parts valuation, Robotaxi contributes $120 per share, making it the second largest source of value after network services ($144). The bank expects Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet to reach 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2026 and 1 million by 2035. According to this framework, a pace of 150 registrations in a single day is exactly the “scale evidence” Morgan Stanley demands, yet the bank remains neutral pending further delivery.

Other neutral institutions include: JPMorgan’s Rajat Gupta, who maintains “Hold” and lowered the target from $445 to $415 on September 28; UBS’s Joseph Spak, who maintains “Neutral” and raised the target to $385 on October 7; Barclays’ Dan Levy, “Hold” with a $370 target; and Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney, “Hold” with a $360 target, who warned in mid-September that Tesla’s Q3 deliveries might fall short of consensus.

Notably, recent rating actions have reflected a pattern of “bulls remaining on hold while neutral institutions fine-tune targets,” with no institution directly raising the rating due to Cybercab data since late September.

Bears: Registration Volume Does Not Equal Actual Fleet Capacity

Among the cautious, GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson maintains a “Sell” rating with a target price of just $24.86—the lowest on Wall Street. The bearish logic has three main points: First, registration does not equal operation—Texas registers “approved for commercial use” vehicles, and Tesla has never disclosed how many of these operate truly without a safety driver; second, there is a huge gap compared to Waymo, which has entered 15 markets, deployed over 4,000 vehicles, and completes more than 500,000 paid rides per week—with 1,154 vehicles registered in Texas alone. Tesla’s 319 Cybercabs is still just a “fraction.”

Regulatory Scrutiny Looms

The NHTSA has escalated its Cybercab safety certification review to a special order, requiring Tesla to respond, sworn and in writing, to 21 questions by October 30, including how the pedal-less design satisfies foot brake standards. On the passenger side, reviews are mixed, with frequent social media complaints about wait times exceeding 45 minutes, inaccurate pick-up/drop-off locations, and falcon-wing door malfunctions.

From a fundamentals perspective, Tesla’s Q2 operating profit fell 57% year-on-year, and Robotaxi has become a key narrative supporting the valuation—which means any expansion falling short of expectations risks being magnified in interpretation.