In its new 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, the number one US bank puts Bitcoin's 10–15-year going-forward compound annual return at 10.0%. That is the best return of any major asset class in the table. Bitcoin's expected performance would be better than U.S. REITs (8.2%), U.S. small caps (7.7%), U.S. large caps (7.5%), emerging markets equities (7.1%), and even gold (5.5%).
The fact that Bitcoin is in the report in the report is noteworthy. This is the first time that JPMorgan has made a return range prediction for BTC in their long-term capital market assumptions.
A capex boom
JPMorgan says that with a global capex boom of $15 trillion (mainly the result of investment in AI and other technology), there will be higher growth, higher productivity, and robust returns for assets over the next decade. Additionally, the developed world will grow more, and bonds will have higher returns plus better opportunities for diversification.
$260K target
In a report dated September 17, JPMorgan analysts spearheaded by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou say Bitcoin is still held less bullishly than gold by investors. Gold ETF outflows have been fully recovered from earlier in 2026, while Bitcoin ETF outflows have only been half recovered. But they say there is perhaps more potential upside to Bitcoin versus gold due to less hedging.
In February, JPMorgan also cited a $266,000 theoretical long-term value for Bitcoin, based on comparing Bitcoin to gold but adjusted for volatility.
