XRP and DOGE Look Undervalued by MVRV Measures, but Will Traders Take Notice?

The crypto market is back in the green on Wednesday, as several major assets have posted gains.

According to Santiment, XRP and Dogecoin are showing potential buying opportunities.

Historically Favorable Zones

The latest 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) data puts DOGE at around 0.74, which suggests that holders who bought over the past year are sitting on significant unrealized losses. XRP is also in negative territory, as its MVRV hovers near 0.92. Both assets are in historically more favorable, lower-risk zones compared with periods when holders hold large profits.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink, however, tell a different story. The 365-day MVRV readings of these three tokens range from 0.97 to 1.04, which places average holders close to breakeven.

This points to a more neutral market position for the three assets. MVRV helps traders assess whether investors are sitting on profits or losses. High readings can indicate rising profit-taking risk, while low readings mean selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. However, these signals do not guarantee a price rebound.

Macro Headwinds

Despite the recent uptick, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market continue to face growing pressure from geopolitical tensions and interest-rate uncertainty. According to Bitunix, the standoff between Washington and Tehran has added fresh uncertainty over oil supplies, with the US midterm elections set for November 3.

Higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated and give the Federal Reserve less room to ease monetary policy. While economists expect rates to hold at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting, all 100 respondents in a Reuters poll expect another hike in December.

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Markets are also showing mixed signals. The S&P 500 remains relatively close to its record high, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped around 14% since October 6. For the crypto market, Bitunix said that the key test is whether energy costs, interest-rate expectations, and AI investment risks begin deteriorating at the same time.

“If they do, markets may need to reprice growth expectations, financing costs, and capital allocation, increasing the potential for volatility across risk assets.”