Price increases haven't suppressed demand! JPMorgan weekly tracker: Apple (AAPL.US) iPhone 18 Pro delivery cycle matches last year; Duo still out of stock for three months

According to information from the Zhihu Finance APP, JPMorgan's latest Apple (AAPL.US) product supply tracking report (week 7) reveals that the iPhone Duo delivery period continues to remain at approximately three months, and is unavailable for in-store pickup across all tracked regions. Meanwhile, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max delivery times are steadily returning to normal levels, with the global average delivery period now back to the same level as this time last year. The bank currently maintains its “Overweight” rating on Apple.

The report shows that in week 7, the global average delivery time to home for iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max was 7 days and 21 days respectively, down by 5 days and 1 day from week 6’s 12 days and 22 days. For comparison, at the same period last year, the global average delivery times for the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max were also 7 days and 21 days. In other words, the global Pro and Pro Max delivery periods are now on par with last year; in the previous week, the Pro’s delivery time was 3 days lower than last year, while the Pro Max was the same.

By region, Pro delivery times generally decreased by 5 to 6 days, and the Pro Max remained unchanged in most regions. Meanwhile, the global average delivery period for the iPhone Duo stood at 94 days, unchanged from the prior week and still around three months. JPMorgan considers that significant changes in Duo’s delivery expectations are unlikely until the supply situation improves.

In the US market, the delivery periods for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were 8 days and 21 days, compared to 14 days and 21 days in week 6; last year, the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max took 8 days and 21 days respectively. The report notes that Pro dropped 6 days week-over-week, matching the same 6-day decline as last year, while Pro Max remained unchanged in both periods. Duo’s delivery time remains about three months, with no change from the previous week. For in-store pickup, all versions of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are available, while Duo is still unavailable. The US accounts for around 34% of iPhone shipments.

In the Chinese market, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max delivery periods were 1 day and 22 days, compared to week 6’s 6 days and 22 days; last year at the same time, the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max required 2 days and 19 days for delivery. Thus, Pro is currently down by 1 day compared to last year, while Pro Max is up by 3 days. The report specifically mentions that although the average delivery for Pro is only 1 day, some configurations can be delivered as quickly as within 3 hours, illustrating the broad supply of Pro configurations. Duo’s delivery time remains at about three months, unchanged from the previous week. For in-store pickup, all versions of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are available; Duo is still unavailable. China accounts for around 19% of iPhone shipments.

In the European market, the delivery periods for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in Germany were 9 days and 22 days, compared to week 6’s 14 days and 22 days; at the same time last year, the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max required 11 days and 23 days. Currently, Pro is 2 days less than last year, and Pro Max is 1 day less. In the UK, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max delivery times were 8 days and 19 days, compared to 14 days and 21 days in week 6; last year, they were 8 days and 21 days. Pro matches last year, while Pro Max is 2 days less. Duo’s delivery time in both Germany and the UK remains approximately three months. For in-store pickup, all versions of iPhone 18 Pro are available in Germany, but none of the Pro Max versions are; in the UK, all versions of both iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are available; Duo is unavailable in both countries. Germany and the UK account for around 3% and 4% of iPhone shipments, respectively.

JPMorgan notes in the report that overall, despite price increases, the Pro series’ delivery period relative to the same period last year still demonstrates resilient demand; and once Duo’s supply improves and pent-up demand is released, it could have a significant impact on revenue. At the same time, this also positively reflects consumer interest in new designs and form factors, as well as Apple’s ability to drive device replacements and upgrades through design innovation.