Trump Says No Attack on Iran Today: U.S. Stock Futures Rise, S&P 500 Just 3% From Record High

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2026/10/26 08:30

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Trump Rules Out Iran Strike, Futures Jump

President Trump clearly stated today that the U.S. will not take military action against Iran, quickly easing market fears of an escalating geopolitical conflict.

Trump Says No Attack on Iran Today: U.S. Stock Futures Rise, S&P 500 Just 3% From Record High image 0

U.S. stock futures rose in response: S&P 500 futures gained about 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose around 0.7%, and Dow Jones futures advanced roughly 0.4%. At the same time, crude oil prices fell, with WTI down about 1.5% and Brent down around 1.0%. The S&P 500 is now only about 3% away from its all-time high, as risk appetite shows a clear recovery on the back of this temporary de-escalation.

At the same time, commodity markets also showed a clear divergence. In addition to weaker crude oil prices, natural gas fell by around 2.5%, suggesting that the risk premium related to potential energy supply disruptions has eased as expectations of an escalation in geopolitical tensions declined. Overall, gains in Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones futures, alongside weakness in crude oil and natural gas, further indicate a recovery in risk appetite, with capital gradually rotating away from safe-haven and energy assets toward growth stocks and large-cap blue chips.

Tech Leaders and Airlines Stand to Benefit Most

From an investment perspective, cooling geopolitical risks supports risk assets, especially growth-oriented tech stocks that had previously been pressured by safe-haven sentiment. Nasdaq futures led the gains, suggesting capital is favoring higher-beta sectors. Mega-cap tech names such as NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and AMD are more likely to attract buying interest.

Lower oil prices also improve the cost outlook for airlines and travel-related companies. Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and American Airlines (AAL), along with some downstream consumer names, stand to benefit more directly. In contrast, pure energy stocks may face short-term pressure. If the cash market can hold the futures gains after the open, tech leaders and large-cap blue chips are likely to be the preferred allocation areas.

Watch the Open for Follow-Through, Stay Alert to Profit-Taking

Overall, this is an event-driven recovery in risk appetite. Futures have already priced in the de-escalation, so the key after the open will be whether trading volume supports the move and whether the indices can hold their gains.

In the short term, focus on tech and broad-market performance while monitoring divergence in the energy sector. If no new conflict signals emerge, the market has a chance to keep pushing toward record highs; otherwise, be prepared for the possibility of a pullback.

Beneficiary vs. Pressure Table

Category	Representative Names	Logic	Short-Term Bias
Tech Growth Leaders	NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), AMD	Geopolitical risks ease, risk appetite recovers, Nasdaq futures lead; high-beta names attract capital more easily	Primary beneficiaries
Airlines & Travel	Delta (DAL), United (UAL), American (AAL)	Lower oil prices reduce fuel costs, directly benefiting airlines and some downstream travel/consumer names	Beneficiaries
Large-Cap Blue Chips	Core S&P 500 constituents	If the cash market holds futures gains after the open, broader risk appetite improves and blue chips attract flows	Beneficiaries
Pure Energy Stocks	Major oil & gas names	Falling oil prices directly pressure earnings expectations	Short-term pressure

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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