The essence of this round of inflation is an energy shock, with prices continuously rising due to ongoing transmission.

⑴ The rebound in US inflation is caused by disruptions in global energy supply; geopolitical conflicts have reduced supplies of crude oil and refined oil products, and Russia's diesel export capacity has dropped sharply, causing diesel prices to surge. ⑵ The release of reserves by various countries and refineries running at full capacity have only partially alleviated the pressure; rising energy prices are spreading along the logistics, chemical, and fertilizer chains, evolving into comprehensive price pressures. ⑶ Import price data confirms that energy is the main factor, with price increases for non-energy commodities abroad being significantly higher than those in the US domestic market. ⑷ Even if the conflict ends immediately, the lagging effect of inflation will continue for some time; however, as the shock is a short-term external factor, energy prices are expected to fall back once the situation eases.