New Zealand Dollar: Best risk-reward long into RBNZ – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes highlights the New Zealand Dollar as the most attractive G10 currency into this week’s central bank meetings. Markets see an almost certain RBNZ hike, with expectations for two more moves by mid-2026. With growth prospects improving and NZD having underperformed AUD this year, Juckes views NZD as offering the best risk-reward long despite recent gains.

NZD seen as standout G10 play

"The markets are priced for a very remote chance of an ECB rate hike, a small chance of a hike by the Fed, a strong chance of a Bank of Canada hike, and almost certainly an RBNZ hike."

"The two non-hikers are expected to raise rates in December, and this week’s expected hikers are likely to act two more times by mid-2027, so the messaging needs to be strong in both cases."

"As for NZD, it does have the advantage that growth expectations are picking up, and the currency has lost a lot of ground to the AUD this year."

"It looks like the best risk-reward long going into tomorrow’s meeting, despite recent gains."