WTI rises above $100.00 amid Israeli election deadlock, Saudi infrastructure attack

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rises after two days of losses, trading around $100.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices advanced as global markets closely monitored election results in Israel that could alter the trajectory of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Exit polls indicated a tight race, showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tied with opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, with neither bloc securing a majority as vote counting continues. Despite the deadlock, the results point to weakening support for Netanyahu, a dominant figure in Israeli politics for decades who has guided the country through nearly three years of continuous conflict.

Meanwhile, markets assessed renewed diplomatic efforts across the region following Monday's meetings between Iranian leaders and officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Adding to the diplomatic momentum, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called for an end to the current state of "neither war nor peace."

However, the broader outlook for peace remains highly uncertain due to escalating violence from Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis. The group renewed attacks on key oil producer Saudi Arabia, announcing on Tuesday that they had struck the kingdom's largest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, using a ballistic missile.

Geopolitical brinkmanship around Iran keeps Brent risk premium elevated

According to analysts at Commerzbank, the geopolitical backdrop for Brent remains highly charged, with US President Donald Trump having recently threatened Iran, saying he would soon decide either to make a deal or to “finish it off.” The bank warns that “new US attacks on Iran could take place following the US mid-term elections next week,” adding that the outcome of today’s parliamentary elections in Israel could also prove pivotal for the trajectory of the conflict. Should Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be returned to office, Commerzbank cautions he “might attempt to achieve regime change in Iran,” a scenario that would further entrench the risk premium already embedded in oil prices.