Saudi refinery attack drives up oil prices, market focuses on next US actions and inventory data

1. On Wednesday, international oil prices rose by more than 1.5%, with Brent crude January futures rising as much as 1.8% to $111.40 per barrel, and US crude oil futures rising as much as 1.87% to $101.77 per barrel. A refinery in Saudi Arabia was attacked, reigniting market concerns over supply risks from this key crude oil exporting country. Previously, on Tuesday, oil prices had fallen nearly $2.2. On Tuesday, Yemen's Houthi forces claimed to have attacked Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery with missiles, intensifying the blow to the world’s second-largest crude oil producer. The refinery has a daily processing capacity of 550,000 barrels. Saudi authorities have not immediately confirmed the attack.3. The commodity strategy team at ING stated that market pricing still reflects a rising likelihood of renewed escalation in the situation. As the market awaits clearer signals from Trump regarding next steps toward Iran, oil prices remain elevated. If the US does not launch a new round of strikes against Iran during the midterm elections, the risk premium could begin to fade.4. Regarding inventories, data from the American Petroleum Institute shows that US crude inventories decreased by 2.03 million barrels in the week ending October 23; however, analysts expected an increase of about 15,000 barrels. The market is awaiting the official weekly inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration to be released later that day.5. According to sources, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to maintain their December crude oil production targets at Sunday’s industry meeting; most of the seven core member countries have output levels below target. Traders also noted that after Russia reached an agreement with the US this month, domestic refineries increased diesel production, and crude oil export volumes from Baltic and Black Sea ports may decline next month.