Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD keeps downward bias below $55.00 as traders await FOMC

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh sellers near the $54.60 region on Wednesday, stalling the previous day's recovery from the $52.70-$52.65 area, or its lowest level since November 2025. The white metal sticks to intraday losses below the $54.00 mark through the early part of the European session as traders now look forward to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision later during the US session and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Hence, traders will closely scrutinize the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference for more cues about the policy path. The outlook will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the XAG/USD ahead of Thursday's important US macro releases – the Advance Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

The two-way price moves since the beginning of this week could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase following the recent breakdown below a strong horizontal support near the $55.00 psychological mark, which should now act as an immediate strong barrier. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is turning positive above the zero line, hinting at emerging but still fragile upside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers from oversold territory yet remains below the 50 mark, reinforcing a capped tone.

However, a sustained strength beyond the $55.00 mark could trigger an aggressive short-covering move and lift the XAG/USD beyond the $56.00 mark, towards the $56.40 intermediate hurdle en route to $57.00 and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The latter is pegged at $57.55, and bulls would need to reclaim that to ease the broader downside pressure, which should open the door to a more sustained recovery. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD remains vulnerable to further declines while it trades under the $57.55 key barrier.

On the downside, XAG/USD bears might now wait for some follow-through weakness below $53.50 before positioning for further losses to the $53.00 mark, which, if broken, would expose the year-to-date low, around the $52.70-$52.65 zone, touched on Tuesday.

XAG/USD 4-hour chart