Overall, Bitcoin’s whale picture is a bit of a mixed bag. Two whales have moved $200 million worth of BTC onto exchanges over the last 24 hours, which could indicate increasing selling pressure.
However, the broader market setup suggests this may be more than isolated positioning.
Ian Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, highlighted a volatile macro window, with a Fed rate decision, major tech earnings, $12 billion in Bitcoin options expiring Friday, and the US midterm elections approaching.
In my opinion, investors are looking at risk-adjusted returns, and BTC is being considered too high-risk for its return profile, while some altcoins like Hyperliquid and ZEC have performed well over the past few months. Hyperliquid also stands to benefit from volume on RWAs that benefit from the AI boom.
As Glassnode reported, a notable change has occurred in the position of the whales. As seen below, Hyperliquid whales now have a net short position in Bitcoin [BTC] for the first time since March.
They successfully positioned themselves long during the bottom; however, they reversed their position last week.
Source: Glassnode
With bearish sentiment, macro FUD, and BTC consolidation, whale positioning looks more strategic than random. This sets the stage for a potential liquidity trap ahead of BTC’s next major directional move.
Whale shorts clash with Bitcoin supply squeeze signals
Bitcoin is seeing conflicting whale signals.
Whale selling is accelerating ahead of major macro events, whilst BTC has been consolidating around $80k, keeping downside risks in play.
However, growing supply squeeze signals suggest underlying demand is absorbing sell-side pressure, with the recent breakout above $81k adding to the bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin has just seen the biggest outflow in five weeks. As seen in the chart below, there were 14,942 BTC that Santiment tracked out of exchanges today. This comes ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday and the GDP and PCE release on Thursday.
Source: Santiment
The key takeaway? A whale scooped up 11,326 BTC worth $903 million during the same window.
Thus, it looks like Bitcoin could be set up to absorb volatility prior to some key macro events and create momentum ahead of a potential post-election rally.
In this context, a massive “whale trap” could be setting up, potentially triggering BTC’s breakout above $80k.
Final Summary
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Bitcoin whales are sending mixed signals, with some selling while others accumulate.
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Heavy exchange outflows could tighten supply and support a BTC breakout above $80k.
