Tokyo inflation and a BoJ rate decision come next for a flat Yen

US growth beat its forecast, and the Dollar is still lower against the Yen after results from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) disappointed. USD/JPY reached its session high just above 158.00 around the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision. It has fallen twice from there and is trading just above 157.50, near the bottom of its session range.

US growth ran at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter against a 3.2% forecast, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation matched its 3.1% forecast. USD/JPY barely moved on either. Futures priced a December Fed hike near 85% after Wednesday's 10-2 hold, a move that would lift the US side of USD/JPY's rate gap to 4.00%-4.25%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) began a two-day meeting on Thursday with its rate at 1.25%, and most analysts in a Reuters poll expect 1.5% in December. The Fed and the BoJ each raised rates by a quarter-point in September, which left USD/JPY's rate gap exactly where it was, at 2.50-2.75 points.

On the calendar

October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Tokyo is out on Thursday at 23:30 GMT, with prices outside fresh food forecast up 2.6% after 2.7%. The BoJ's decision follows on Friday at no fixed hour, and BoJ Governor Ueda holds a news conference at 06:30 GMT and speaks again at 16:00 GMT on November 6. All of it bears on the timing of the BoJ's next hike.

San Francisco Fed President Daly and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speak at 16:00 GMT and 16:30 GMT on Friday. October's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is due at 13:30 GMT on November 6, after a 29K gain in September, and feeds the Fed's December decision.

On the charts

USD/JPY is trading on its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day slightly higher. The climb off the early-September low just under 153.00 stopped just above 159.00 on September 24, and the pair hasn't been back above that high since. It has recovered a little over two-fifths of its drop from the late-July high just under 164.00.

USD/JPY daily chart