Energy Earnings Week Kicks Off: Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US) Profit Doubles as Opening Act, Political Criticism Looms

Zhihong Finance APP notes that the coming week is crucial for energy investors. ExxonMobil (XOM.US), Chevron (CVX.US), Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), and ConocoPhillips (COP.US) will release their financial reports one after another.

Industry observer Brian Sullivan stated bluntly: these figures will be astonishing—so massive they're said to be "Texas-sized."

The expected data for ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are as above, with all three companies' earnings per share (EPS) anticipated to more than double compared to last year. For companies focused on refining, however, the outlook is different.

Marathon Petroleum's EPS is expected to reach as high as $25.37. Three months ago, the company's EPS was $17.73, while the market expected "only" $14.27. For another comparison: just a year ago, this Ohio-based company had EPS of only $4.51. Surging oil prices and, more critically, a substantial widening of refined product "crack spreads" are expected to boost its sales by $13 billion within a year.

For these four companies, guidance may prove even more important than the earnings reports themselves. What these companies say about future prospects and capital expenditures will be key, and any adjustments to spending plans will be closely watched by investors.

These numbers will also be closely watched by politicians. As oil prices rise, politicians are likely to use these massive figures to criticize the entire industry. According to an industry insider, political attacks have become "routine" for the sector, but the hope is that more attention will be paid to the cyclical nature of the industry—profits earned now are used to weather future downturns and prepare for the inevitable decline in oil prices at some future point.

Regardless of one's stance on the oil giants, the coming week will be tumultuous for energy investors on multiple fronts—everything will be on full display.

BTIG chart analyst Jonathan Krinsky advises investors to approach the energy sector with caution. As for refiners, he points out that the S&P Refining Index has climbed nearly 160% in 2026, making it the best year of at least the last 30, and by a wide margin.

Earlier this week, Krinsky wrote: "At a minimum, investors should expect some consolidation in the sector, with a more likely scenario being a significant downward correction."

Krinsky is not optimistic about the technical charts for Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum. For the latter, he commented that the stock "has yet to truly break its uptrend but appears on the verge of doing so."

Next week will see one of the world's most important energy conferences: Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC). This event gathers the biggest names in global energy, just as the market worries the U.S. might launch a new round of strikes against Iran or its energy infrastructure—the situation remains tense.

Oil continues to be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, in part thanks to the U.S. Navy ensuring the safe passage of vessels. But risks remain: hostilities involving Iran could flare up again, and the U.S. may launch new strikes against Iranian targets. If so, oil prices are likely to surge even higher.