ANZ raised its year-end forecast for Brent crude to $105 per barrel.

Daniel Hynes, Sonia Kumari, and other ANZ Bank strategists stated that the current oil market supply and demand balance is more fragile than at the start of the Middle East conflict, and any escalation in the situation after the U.S. midterm elections will push oil prices higher. Assuming no further escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, Brent crude oil is expected to reach $105 per barrel by year-end, higher than the previous forecast of $95. This forecast is not based on "another geopolitical shock," but rather on the assumption that "the constraints facing the oil market will persist until the end of the year." Although oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have largely resumed, actual transport efficiency has fallen to about 60% of pre-war levels. Even if logistics do not deteriorate further, current delivery strains (especially in shipping) will make it difficult for the market to rebuild inventories. Meanwhile, strategic oil reserves have been depleted, and potential demand may be stronger than expected. Global crude oil idle inventories currently cover about 41 days, down from 45 days earlier this year. If oil supply improves, it could release some of the demand previously suppressed by shortages, high freight costs, or trade and refining bottlenecks.