International gold prices fluctuated at high levels in October, while gold-themed ETFs attracted capital against the trend.

Reporter Wang Ning

In October, international gold prices experienced high-level oscillations and a pullback. Gold-themed ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) generally saw a decline in net asset value, but on the capital side, there was a trend of "buying more as prices fall."

According to Wind data, all 13 gold-themed ETFs saw positive net inflows from subscriptions and redemptions in October, with a total net inflow of about 5.6 billion yuan. Among them, the ChinaAMC Gold ETF led with a net inflow of 1.4 billion yuan, followed by Huaan Gold ETF with 1.2 billion yuan, China Asset Management Gold ETF with 900 million yuan, E Fund Gold ETF with 700 million yuan, and ICBC Credit Suisse Gold ETF with 500 million yuan.

Both commodity and equity gold ETFs reported growth in net inflows from subscriptions and redemptions, reflecting that long-term and medium-term demand for gold asset allocation remains; short-term price fluctuations have not disrupted the pace of capital entry.

However, in terms of size changes, all 13 products experienced varying degrees of decline. Among them, Huaan Gold ETF, the largest gold ETF by size, now stands at 97.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.9 billion yuan for the month, making it the biggest drop. Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF decreased by 2.1 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan, respectively. However, size changes are not caused by a single factor. Taking Huaan Gold ETF as an example, although its size declined during the month, subscription net inflow reached 1.2 billion yuan. The decrease in net asset value led to a reduction of 6.1 billion yuan in size, resulting in simultaneous capital inflow and asset shrinkage.

In addition, from the perspective of product types, net asset value declines in commodity gold ETFs reduced size by 14.6 billion yuan, while stock-based gold ETF net asset value drops reduced size by 3.28 billion yuan. Judging by target indices, the size decrease in stock-based gold ETFs was relatively minor, possibly due to tracking gold industry stock indices, which are relatively more volatile. Overall, a fall in the net asset value of 13 gold ETFs is the main reason for the overall reduction in total size, causing most product sizes to "fall rather than rise."

Since October, international gold prices have generally shown a correction trend. The New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) gold December contract has now fallen below the $4,000/ounce level. As of the press deadline for Securities Daily reporters, the contract settled at $3,885/ounce. From Shanshan, a precious metals researcher at Huishang Futures, stated that the core of this round of international gold price adjustment has shifted to "repricing of tightening expectations." In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain in wide fluctuations, but in the medium and long term, there is still potential for an increase.

Analysts from the macro team at Minmetals Futures Research Center said that the current tightening of the international macro environment is forming systemic pressure on precious metal prices. In the short term, international gold prices may remain range-bound with limited upside. In the medium and long term, the key to the direction of gold prices lies in whether inflation expectations in overseas markets can be validated.

Editor: Zhu Henan