Exxon Mobil's Refining Strength Offsets Middle East Disruptions, Morgan Stanley Says

11:02 AM EST, 11/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Exxon Mobil's (XOM) refining strength and exposure to higher downstream margins more than offset ongoing production disruptions in the Middle East, making the company a key beneficiary of the tight petroleum products market, Morgan Stanley said in a Monday note. Morgan Stanley lowered its Q4 total production estimate by 2%, as Exxon Mobil expects Middle East production disruptions of about 350 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. However, the firm's 2026 forecast remains unchanged after Q3 production outperformed expectations. Exxon Mobil plans to disclose its full 2027 guidance later in the year through a press release rather than a formal Corporate Plan Update. The investment firm expects production and capital expenditure to remain consistent with prior plans. Morgan Stanley expects Q4 total production of 4,544 kboe/d, along with earnings per share of $4.33 and free cash flow of $7.53 billion. It expects total production of 4,925 kboe/d, EPS of $14.84, cash capex of $29.28 billion and free cash flow of $67.04 billion in 2027. Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Exxon Mobil to $187 from $185 and maintained its overweight rating. Exxon Mobil shares were down more than 2% in Monday trading. Price: 183.34, Change: -3.91, Percent Change: -2.09