Benjamin Cowen, a closely followed analyst in the cryptocurrency market, made important statements in his new video evaluating the recent declines in Bitcoin (BTC) price. Cowen stated that Bitcoin is trading at very low levels according to mathematical models, but warned his followers that selling pressure could continue into the last quarter of 2026.
Cowen stated that Bitcoin’s current price is well below its fair value in the long-term logarithmic regression model. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has traded in similar regions for extended periods in the past, particularly in 2015 and 2016, followed by a strong surge in 2017.
However, Cowen believes that the current market cycle differs significantly from previous cycles.
Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin Looks Cheap, But Could Fall Further
The renowned analyst pointed out that although Bitcoin may rise above its fair value in 2024 and 2025, it will not be able to sustain these levels. According to Cowen, the main reason for this is the absence of the exuberant rise seen in previous major bull markets and the strong investor interest that spread to the altcoin market in this cycle.
Comparing the current market structure to the 2019 surge, the analyst stated that Bitcoin is currently undervalued according to its historical patterns.
Cowen noted that the gap between Bitcoin’s price and the levels predicted by the model has widened to an extent not seen since 2010. However, he emphasized that the low valuation does not guarantee a short-term rise.
The analyst said that just because an asset appears cheap according to mathematical models doesn’t mean it can’t become even cheaper, and similarly, overvalued assets can continue to trade at high prices for a long time.
Cowen expects Bitcoin to spend the rest of the year below its fair value level and move closer to the lower boundary of the logarithmic regression channel.
“The Real Danger in Bitcoin May Originate from Nasdaq”
Another point highlighted in Cowen’s analysis was the relationship between US stock markets and Bitcoin.
The analyst noted that the selling pressure on Bitcoin during the final quarter of US midterm election years is often not solely due to the cryptocurrency market itself.
Cowen, who previously stated that he expected the Nasdaq index to fall by 10 to 20 percent in the last quarter of the year, said that the index has already declined by about 10 percent.
The analyst, who attributed much of the recent sell-off in Bitcoin to macroeconomic conditions, argued that if the Nasdaq were to fall by another 5 to 10 percent by the end of the year, Bitcoin could also be negatively affected.
Cowen also stated that the recent major cryptocurrency exchange attack may have accelerated Bitcoin’s decline, but the downward trend began long before the attack.
Attention Drawn to Critical Technical Level for Bitcoin
Cowen, also evaluating Bitcoin’s technical outlook, said that after the price makes two weekly closes below the upper end of its previous trading range, it usually retreats quickly towards the bull market support band.
The analyst cited Bitcoin’s decline to the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) after two weeks of closing below its May peak as an example of this trend.
Cowen acknowledged that the limited losses in Bitcoin despite the recent stock market attack indicated a certain degree of market resilience, but stressed that this did not rule out the possibility of a new decline.
He also noted that Bitcoin has shown a tendency in recent weeks to bottom out towards the weekends, recover at the start of the week, and then decline again.
Cowen believes that after a brief rebound before the US midterm elections, Bitcoin could test lower levels of its bull market support band.
