South Korean Won: Moderate appreciation with two-way risks – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong project USD/KRW at 1320 by end-2026 and 1260 by end-2027, implying a moderate Korean Won (KRW) appreciation path that is unlikely to be linear. High-beta characteristics, elevated US yields and potential further Fed hikes keep near-term volatility high, while resilient exports and strong AI-related semiconductor demand underpin a constructive medium-term view as USD strength moderates.

Won recovery but choppy path

"Recovery bias but unlikely a straight line. We expect KRW to appreciate moderately into 2027, with USD/KRW projected at 1320 at end-2026 and 1260 at end-2027. The recovery is unlikely to be a straight line, given KRW’s high-beta characteristics and sensitivity to global risk sentiment and portfolio flows."

"Korea’s export resilience and continued strength in AI-related semiconductor demand should provide support, while expectations for hawkish Fed repricing to unwind and USD strength to moderate reinforce our medium-term constructive bias."

"Near term, however, still-elevated US Treasury yields and expectations of another Fed hike could sustain two-way volatility, while resident overseas investment flows may continue to complicate KRW’s response to equity market strength."