European natural gas: Geopolitics and cooling temperatures drive price volatility

Bitget

News

智通财经2026/11/03 10:36

Show original

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

On Tuesday, core European natural gas spot prices rebounded, moving away from the noticeable decline of the previous day, with geopolitical developments and cooling expectations being the main supporting factors.
Institutional data shows that the Dutch TTF near-month contract rose by about 2 euros, with quotes reaching around 96 euros per megawatt-hour. The UK near-month contract also increased in tandem.
The leading contract had fallen by over 10% on the previous trading day, dropping to a five-day low, with market sentiment shifting noticeably in a short period of time.
Temperatures in Northwest Europe are expected to continue dropping. Friday's temperature forecast was revised down by 2 degrees Celsius from earlier estimates, pushing up demand for natural gas for heating.
The lowered temperatures are driving an incremental daily increase of about 113 gigawatt-hours in local residential heating gas consumption, marginally strengthening the supply-demand balance.
European gas storage facility fill rates stand at 74.56%, marking the lowest level for the same period in history, signaling a relatively weak inventory base.
According to Morgan Stanley, if winter temperatures are normal or colder than usual, Europe will need to secure more flexible LNG supplies to replenish inventories.
Asian demand for LNG remains strong, diverting shipments that could have been destined for Europe, which increases the difficulty for Europe to secure supplies through competitive bidding.
Institutions maintain a baseline scenario price forecast of 90 euros per megawatt-hour, on the premise that the overall winter is relatively mild and Qatari LNG exports normalize by mid-first quarter of next year.
Beyond the baseline assumption, upside price risk is greater; institutions have raised the optimistic scenario to 150 euros per megawatt-hour, due to cold weather at the beginning of Q4 depleting inventory buffers.
The benchmark contract in the European carbon market moved up slightly, with quotes approaching 89 euros per ton.
On the trading side, activity is also being influenced by the US midterm elections, with market participants maintaining a cautious stance.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

European natural gas: Geopolitics and cooling temperatures drive price volatility

You may also like

Crypto prices