Canada-US Deal Could Ease Steel, Auto Tariffs, but Trade Uncertainty Remains, Rosenberg Says

09:06 AM EST, 11/03/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The outlook for a Canada-US trade agreement has improved following apparent concessions from the Trump administration and direct talks between President Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney, Rosenberg Research said in a Tuesday note. A deal in the coming weeks could ease Section 232 steel tariffs and avert the threatened auto tariffs set for the start of 2027, Rosenberg wrote. However, it remains uncertain whether other US tariffs would also be covered, said Rosenberg. Despite improving prospects, lingering trade uncertainty is pushing Canada to broaden its international partnerships, Rosenberg added. It cited last week's Canada-EU summit launch of an "Alliance for the Future" as an example, with closer association targeted by mid-2027 and new initiatives covering critical minerals, defense and energy. Rosenberg's base case is that the auto tariffs will be avoided for now. If imposed, however, Canada's effective tariff rate would rise to 9.3% from 7.5%, cutting Rosenberg's first-quarter 2027 growth forecast by around 0.6 percentage point to 0.9% annualized or lower and potentially pushing unemployment above 7% by mid-year.