November-to-November gold prices rose after eight of the 13 previous midterms with outcomes ranging from a 22% fall to a 90% rise
Americans vote today, and the question precious metals investors ask on election day is a narrower one than who wins: what has gold done after previous midterms? The historical record provides the answer without needing to wait for the election result.
What gold did after the last 13 midterms
There have been 13 midterm elections since 1974. In eight of them, gold's average price in the following November was higher than its average in the election month; in the five others, it was lower. The average change was +14%, the median +15%. The two most recent midterms, 2018 and 2022, saw +20% and +15% increases to the gold price.
What history does not tell investors is which kind of year they are about to get. The best outcome on the list is more than four times above the average; the worst performance erased over one-fifth of the value of gold holdings. Eleven of the thirteen sit between -8% and +28%, which is a wide range of outcomes for a single number to summarize.
What happened at the two extremes
The 1978 midterms left the Democrats in control of both chambers. Over the following twelve months, gold's November average went from about $206 to about $392 an ounce, a rise of 90%. That year brought the second oil shock, the Iranian revolution, the hostage crisis in November 1979, and Paul Volcker's arrival at the Federal Reserve in August. The run continued past the window, through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late December, to a brief peak above $850 in January 1980.
The 1974 midterms also left the Democrats with comfortable majorities. Gold had risen sharply since the United States suspended dollar convertibility in 1971. In the twelve months after that election, its November average fell from about $182 to about $142, a 22% decline and the start of gold's first major bear market of the floating currency era.
The cleanest case of timing is 2010. Republicans won a House majority on November 2. On November 3, the Federal Reserve announced a second round of asset purchases, totaling $600 billion of Treasuries. Gold's November average was 27% higher a year later.
These episodes coincided with major monetary and economic developments. The comparisons describe what followed each election; they do not show which developments produced the moves, and the election explains only the date the count starts from.
Silver prices and control of Congress
Silver rose in nine of the 13 comparisons, with an average change of +20% and a median move of +12%. The average is lifted by the 1978 comparison, when silver's November average went from about $5.90 to about $16.70, a rise of 183%. Silver did not consistently outrun gold: its losses were smaller than gold's in three of its four down years, and in 1998 silver rose while gold fell.
Whichever way tonight goes, it will fall into one of two groups. Eight midterms since 1974 changed the majority in at least one chamber: 1986, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022. Five left the balance of power unchanged: 1974, 1978, 1982, 1990 and 1998. Gold averaged +15% after a change in majority control and +11% after no change. The no-change group has the wider range, from -22% to +90%, and that is the work of one year, 1978. With 13 midterms split eight to five, the difference between the groups is smaller than the swing of a single election.
What history cannot tell you
Thirteen is a small number. Eight of thirteen is a coin that came up heads slightly more often than not, over a period in which gold's monthly average went from $39 an ounce in February 1971 to above $4,000. The median change after a midterm, +15%, is higher than the +5.9% median twelve-month change after any month since 1971, but thirteen observations are too few to call that a dependable pattern. The comparisons are clear on what prices did after each of these elections. They do not establish that the election outcome caused the move, and they say nothing about what will follow this one.
The next comparison will use the November 2026 and November 2027 monthly averages. We will add it to the table when both months are complete, whatever it shows.
The figures here come from our new historical research tool, which puts 55 years of monthly average gold and silver prices from the Kitco site and the World Bank on one timeline with every presidency, Congress and Fed chair, the wars, the shocks, inflation, real yields and the dollar. The midterm analysis above is just one of many possible uses of the tool, and we invite you to explore more. It opened in beta this week, and access is completely free, with a one-time sign-in and no password. There is a feedback button on every page; if a number looks wrong, we want to hear about it.
