Gartner Stock Sinks Despite Raised Outlook as Fourth-Quarter Forecast Disappoints -- Barrons.com

By Ty Roush

Gartner stock plunged Tuesday as its outlook disappointed Wall Street despite better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and higher full-year guidance.

Shares of Gartner fell 15% to $201.05, making the stock the worst performer in the S&P 500 and putting it on pace for its largest daily percentage decline since February, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%.

The company reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of $3.59 a share and $1.5 billion in revenue, above consensus analyst calls for $2.84 and $1.48 billion, respectively, according to FactSet.

Gartner raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to at least $14.65 a share, up from $14, and its adjusted revenue forecast to at least $6.405 billion from $6.375 billion.

But the improved outlook suggests a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter. BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeffrey Silber argued the guidance implied adjusted earnings of $3.68 a share for the period, well below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $4.47. It also implies adjusted Ebitda of $362 million, compared with expectations for $425 million.

Gartner's third-quarter revenue declined 1.3% year over year. Its per-share earnings were partially supported by stock buybacks, which reduced the company's diluted share count by nearly 15% from a year earlier.

The company's underlying business showed modest growth. Revenue increased 2.4% over the previous year excluding the divested operation, while contract value, a measure of its subscription-based research business, grew 2.5% year over year on a currency-neutral basis.

The sluggish growth comes as Gartner faces questions about whether AI could disrupt its research and advisory business. AI tools are increasingly capable of analyzing information, comparing technology vendors, and providing strategic guidance, potentially reducing companies' reliance on traditional paid research subscriptions.

Rival Forrester Research is facing similar growth challenges. Its contract value declined 3.5% year over year in the third quarter, and the company has introduced new AI-powered products, including an integration with Anthropic's Claude, as it works to revive growth.

Write to Ty Roush at tyler.roush@barrons.com

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November 03, 2026 11:32 ET (16:32 GMT)