Euro: Upside bias toward 1.1250 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note building upward momentum in EUR/USD after a sharp early Asian session rise. Intraday, the Euro (EUR) is seen having room to test resistance at 1.1250, provided it holds above 1.1190. Over the next 1–3 weeks, renewed upside suggests a potential move toward 1.1250 and possibly 1.1280 if the pair can close above 1.1250.

Euro-Dollar momentum turning higher

"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, EUR briefly rose to 1.1237 and then retreated. When it was at 1.1190 yesterday, we indicated that “the brief advance did not lead to any increase in upward momentum,” and we expected EUR “to trade in a range between 1.1160 and 1.1220.” EUR then traded within a narrower range of 1.1174/1.1206. While EUR closed little changed at 1.1193 (+0.07%), it rose sharply in the early Asian session today. Upward momentum is building, and there is room for EUR to test 1.1250. It is too early to determine whether EUR can break clearly above this level. To keep the momentum going, EUR must not break below 1.1190, with minor support at 1.1215."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Friday (30 Oct, spot at 1.1190), we indicated that EUR “could rebound further to 1.1220.” We highlighted that “a close above 1.1220 could lead to a move to 1.1250.” After EUR rose and then dropped back down to a low of 1.1136, we highlighted on Monday (02 Nov, spot at 1.1160) that “the buildup in momentum has eased with the pullback, and a clear break below 1.1135 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the shift to a positive EUR view was premature.” EUR rose sharply in the early Asian session today, and the renewed upward momentum suggests it could test 1.1250. It must close above this level before a move to 1.1280 is likely. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.1160."