Democrat Majority House Most Consequential for U.S. Treasurys -- Market Talk

0652 GMT - A Democratic majority in the House would likely be the most consequential outcome of these midterm elections for the Treasury market, says Jan Groen at Societe Generale. Losing the House and its budgetary powers will deprive the Republican administration of its ability to pursue additional tax cuts or other expansionary fiscal policies, the chief U.S. economist says. "The resulting fiscal policy gridlock would make further fiscal expansion less likely, reducing the risk of further deterioration in the fiscal outlook and therefore limiting upward pressure on longer-term Treasury yields." However, the Democrats' modest majorities, the Senate filibuster, and presidential vetoes remain significant constraints on any push for higher spending by a Democratic Congress, he adds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 04, 2026 01:52 ET (06:52 GMT)