Energy, Gold Mask Broad-Based Weakness in Canada's September Trade Surplus, CIBC Says

11:44 AM EST, 11/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Energy and gold shipments drove a modest widening in Canada's merchandise trade surplus in September, offsetting weakness across most other sectors, CIBC Economics said in a Wednesday note. Canada's trade surplus increased to CA$5.35 billion in September from a revised CA$4.95 billion in August, despite lower export volumes and declines in eight of the nine major non-energy export categories, CIBC wrote. Merchandise exports edged up 0.2% on the month in September, supported by energy and gold shipments, while eight of the nine other major categories declined. Excluding energy and metals, exports fell 5.6%, with several weaker categories affected by recently imposed US tariffs, Statistics Canada said in a Wednesday release. Weak non-energy exports and lower trade volumes suggest that August's strength may have reflected shipments brought forward in anticipation of US tariffs, the bank added. The data underscore the growing economic cost of trade restrictions, which could persist into the last quarter of 2026 despite renewed bilateral talks. Even with a Canada-US trade deal, net trade is expected to weigh on fourth-quarter GDP, with overall growth easing to just below 1%, said CIBC. Financial markets were largely unmoved by Wednesday's trade data, as investors focused instead on the US midterm election results, according to the bank.