Updated version 3 - Novavax delays profitability target to 2029, shares fall

The first paragraph was rewritten, and analyst commentary was added to the third paragraph

Sriparna Roy

Reuters, Nov 5 - Vaccine maker Novavax NVAX.O on Thursday delayed its profitability target to 2029, news that overshadowed its raised annual revenue outlook and sent its shares down 9%.

The loss-making company had previously pinned its hopes on a licensing deal with French drugmaker Sanofi SASY.PA (link), aiming to achieve profitability before 2028.

B Riley analyst Mayank Mamtani said Sanofi's flu-COVID combination vaccine will be the biggest driver of Novavax’s cash flow, while the timing for late-stage clinical trials is now out of Novavax's hands.

Novavax said Sanofi plans to launch the trial in 2027. Once the vaccine is launched in the U.S. in 2029, Novavax will be eligible for a $225 million milestone payment.

Novavax has been reliant on (link) licensing deals, as well as partnerships connected to its protein vaccine platform and the Matrix-M adjuvant—a compound that boosts the body’s immune response to vaccines.

Chief Executive John Jacobs told Reuters that Novavax is actively seeking additional partnership opportunities.

The company is also working on building a database to expand the applications of its vaccine technology and support vaccine projects of potential partners.

Novavax head of R&D Bob Walker said during the earnings call: “We view this database as a strategic asset, and as evidence accumulates, we believe the potential to establish new or expand existing partnerships will grow accordingly.”

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The sweeping victory of Democrats in the U.S. midterm elections has boosted expectations that vaccine policy will stabilize following a period of uncertainty.

“I think it’s too soon to say precisely what will happen… but I do think, in the long run, it’s a good sign for vaccine makers,” Jacobs said.

According to data compiled by LSEG, Novavax now expects 2026 adjusted revenue to be between $385 million and $415 million, up from the prior forecast of $235 million to $275 million and also above the analyst average estimate of $380.29 million.

Novavax reported a quarterly net loss of $31 million, narrowing from $202 million a year earlier.

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