Nvidia Stock Is Below $200. What History Suggests Is the Floor. -- Barrons.com

By Adam Clark and Angela Palumbo

Nvidia stock is at levels it hasn't seen in three months. But the chip company's recent record suggests it might be bottoming out soon.

The stock was down 7.1% to $185.85 Thursday, on pace for its worst day since April 2025. If the move holds, it will be the first time the price has closed below $200 since July 30.

Nvidia was also on pace to lose $381 billion in market cap, which would be the company's second largest one-day market cap decline on record, following a $593 billion loss in market cap on Jan. 27, 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The stock's drop coincides with a broader and massive tech selloff following the tide of Democrat victories in the midterm elections. The incoming political shift has cast doubt on the artificial-intelligence buildout.

"Democrats on Capitol Hill are likely to push for legislation that slows the data center boom and forces companies to cover the cost of electricity and water infrastructure upgrades," writes Mike Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Charles Schwab.

Nvidia's customers such as SpaceX and CoreWeave are more in the immediate firing line of any data-center delays, but investors are concerned that will eventually translate into reduced chip purchases.

The Nasdaq Composite was falling 4.1% on Thursday. The index was also down an estimated $2.07 trillion in market cap, which would be its largest one-day market cap decline ever.

But the immediate reaction to Nvidia's stock might be going too far. Remember that the chip maker has forecast 70% revenue growth for its fiscal 2028 year (as Nvidia's fiscal year ends in January, this is largely the same as a 2027 forecast), which it said was limited by supply rather than demand. Any delayed data-center projects could just mean chips being directed to alternative customers, either in other states or overseas.

"The U.S. is a very large place. And so if the new governors do make it impossible to build new data centers...then these tech companies, in my opinion, will look to build elsewhere," said Gavekal U.S. chief economist Will Denyer. "And there will always be some state and some county who is willing to welcome data centers and the tax revenue that come with it."

It's also worth thinking about Nvidia's valuation. It now trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of around 14 times according to FactSet. That's well below the 18.45 times multiple for the S&P 500 as a whole despite a far superior growth outlook to the average company and enormous stock buybacks.

"The slowdown is a negative for Semis [semiconductors] and AI infrastructure, but a lot is already priced into Semis with valuations nearing multi-year lows. Additionally, Semis positioning has been cut sharply," wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker in a research note.

Nvidia is no stranger to pullbacks. Since first breaking through $200 in April, it has fallen below that level on multiple occasions. However, it hasn't fallen lower than $190 and has generally risen in the few weeks ahead of its quarterly earnings -- which are set to be released on Nov. 17.

Over the next couple of weeks there should be a steady stream of Wall Street previews of Nvidia's earnings, which could set a new average price target -- currently sitting at about $333, according to FactSet. That could help set a floor under the stock.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com and Angela Palumbo at angela.palumbo@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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November 05, 2026 11:40 ET (16:40 GMT)