XRP Wave 2 May Be Over — Analyst Eyes Wave 3 Above the 350-Day MA

XRP is trading at $1.24 — down 5.54% over the past 24 hours — with a market cap of $78.4 billion and $1.89 billion in daily volume. That pullback, however, is precisely the kind of price zone one analyst is treating as an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

Signal — Elliott Wave 2 Completion and the Case for Wave 3

The Elliott Wave principle divides price action into five impulsive waves and three corrective waves. After a full five-wave move down — labeled Wave (1) through Wave (5) on the chart — price typically enters an ABC zigzag correction before resuming in the dominant direction. That corrective structure is what the analyst identifies as Wave (2), and the chart shows the C leg of that correction completing near the 0 Fibonacci extension level — currently where XRP is trading, around $1.24–$1.32 on the daily chart.

The chart, plotted on a XRP/USDT perpetual contract daily timeframe, overlays a Fibonacci extension grid with labeled levels at 0, 1, 1.618, and 2. The wave labels — (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), A, B, C — are explicitly annotated, with Wave (2) completing at the C low near the 0 Fibonacci level. The projected trajectory drawn upward from that low represents a potential Wave (3) impulse, historically the strongest and most extended wave in an Elliott sequence. The chart also displays the MA350 — the 350-day moving average — sitting above the current price. As of the chart, XRP is trading below the MA350, and a breakout above it is the required confirmation.

The 350-Day MA — The One Level That Changes the Picture

The 350-day moving average is a long-horizon trend filter. On Bitcoin, it has historically separated bear market consolidation from bull market continuation. For XRP, the framing is conditional but clear: Wave 3 is the thesis, and the 350-day MA breakout is the trigger. Without that breakout — on a sustained basis, not an intraday spike — the corrective structure cannot be confirmed as complete.

The chart’s current price label shows XRP at approximately $1.3176 on the perpetual contract, while the live spot price at time of writing is $1.24. The stated trigger is a breakout above the MA350 “in the coming weeks” — a timeframe, not an immediate call. That distinction matters. The setup is developing, not confirmed. The analyst is positioning for the entry zone, not announcing the breakout has occurred.

What the signal says: Wave (2) corrective structure appears complete at the C low near the 0 Fibonacci level, and XRP is at or near the beginning of a potential Wave (3) impulse.
What it does not say: The breakout has occurred, the MA350 has been reclaimed, or Wave 3 is already in motion.
What to watch for confirmation: A sustained daily close above the 350-day MA — not an intraday breach — in the coming weeks.

ETF Context — Spot Flows Remain Thin

XRP spot ETF data via SoSoValue shows total net assets of $1.49 billion with cumulative inflows since launch reaching $1.81 billion. However, the past five trading days show a net of only $7.4 million across predominantly outflow sessions — four of the last five days saw outflows, with zero net flow on the most recent trading date of November 4. Daily trading volume in the XRP spot ETF stands at $23.1 million. These figures suggest institutional ETF demand is not currently providing a tailwind for XRP price, making the technical setup — and particularly the MA350 breakout — the primary driver to monitor.

Macro events this week add an additional layer of context. Nonfarm Payrolls on November 6 and CPI on November 10 are both risk events capable of moving broader crypto sentiment in either direction. For XRP specifically — which has shown sensitivity to both risk-on flows and regulatory developments — these releases could either compress or accelerate the timeframe the analyst is watching.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Bullish Scenario — Breakout Above the MA350

If XRP closes convincingly above the 350-day moving average on the daily timeframe in the coming weeks, the Elliott Wave thesis gains structural confirmation. A Wave (3) impulse — if the count is correct — would typically extend to the 1.618 Fibonacci level at minimum, as annotated on the chart. That level sits at a significantly higher price than current, though no explicit dollar target has been stated. The Fibonacci grid on the chart extends to the 2.0 level, suggesting the framework accommodates a substantial measured move above the MA350.

Bearish Scenario — Failure to Reclaim MA350

If XRP fails to break above the MA350 in the coming weeks and price begins deteriorating below the C low — the 0 Fibonacci level near $1.24 — the Wave (2) completion thesis is invalidated. That would suggest the corrective structure is still in progress, potentially extending to lower levels before any Wave (3) can begin. No explicit invalidation price has been stated, but the chart’s C wave low near the current zone is the structural anchor of the entire setup.

XRP’s Elliott Wave structure — a completed ABC correction landing at the 0 Fibonacci level — presents one of the cleaner setups the daily chart has offered in recent sessions. The thesis is conditional: the 350-day MA breakout is the trigger that confirms Wave 3 is underway. With XRP currently below that average, the setup is live but unconfirmed. Watch the 350-day MA on the daily close — that is the line drawn between corrective and impulsive.

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Written by

Coinsprobe Markets Desk

Crypto journalist and analyst covering blockchain, DeFi, and digital asset markets at CoinsProbe.

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