Central Asia Metals’ (AIM, TSX: CAML) newly acquired Chibougamau project in Quebec could produce more copper annually than the company’s Kounrad mine, helping offset declining output at the Kazakhstan operation in the early 2030s, according to BMO Capital Markets.
Annual steady-state production at Chibougamau could hit about 20,000 tonnes of copper and 32,000 oz. of gold, with first output set for late 2031 or early 2032, BMO Capital Markets mining analyst Alexander Pearce said Wednesday in a note. Pearce resumed coverage at outperform, while cutting his share-price target by 25% to 180 pence (C$3.38) from 240 pence.
Chibougamau could more than replace the copper output Central Asia expects to lose as Kounrad declines. But that growth would require substantial investment: BMO assumes $450 million (C$630 million) in pre-production capital, including replacement of the existing mill, with permitting likely to determine when construction can begin.
“While the project is early stage and many unknowns remain, its existing infrastructure and potential resource upside via its hub-and-spoke model are key positives,” Pearce wrote.
Central Asia shares rose 2.1% to C$2.41 Thursday morning in Toronto, valuing the company at about C$618 million ($441 million). They’ve ranged between C$2.26 and C$2.59 since the stock began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange last week.
Three-year build
BMO is assuming Chibougamau will require three years of construction for annual mill throughput of 900,000 tonnes. An updated preliminary economic assessment is expected in the second half of 2027.
Central Asia inherited Chibougamau when it completed its acquisition of Cygnus Metals Oct. 27. Cygnus shareholders received 0.06 Central Asia shares for each share held.
The Canadian project adds potential replacement production as Kounrad declines. An August reserve update forecast copper output at the mine could drop to 9,000 tonnes in 2031 and 6,000 tonnes in 2032, with production continuing through 2034. Central Asia’s 2026 target remains 12,000–13,000 tonnes.
Kounrad recovers copper from historical waste dumps in Kazakhstan. London-based Central Asia also operates the Sasa zinc-lead mine in North Macedonia.
Five deposits
Located about 480 km north of Montreal, Chibougamau covers more than 282 sq. km. Its Copper Rand processing plant last operated in 2008 and has historical capacity of 900,000 tonnes a year. Central Asia says the plant requires refurbishment, but BMO assumes it will be replaced.
The project also has tailings storage, a hydroelectric power connection and road and rail infrastructure. Five deposits — Corner Bay, Devlin, Cedar Bay, Joe Mann and Golden Eye — lie within about 50 km of the plant and could supply a central mill.
A September 2025 estimate for Chibougamau estimated the property holds measured and indicated resources of 6.4 million tonnes grading 2.3% copper, 0.8 gram gold per tonne and 7.6 grams silver per tonne for contained metal of 149,000 tonnes copper, 167,000 oz. gold and about 1.6 million oz. silver.
Inferred resources total 8.5 million tonnes grading 2.1% copper, 1.7 grams gold per tonne and 7.9 grams silver per tonne, containing 182,000 tonnes copper, 454,000 oz. gold and about 2.2 million oz. silver.
No mineral reserves have been established at Chibougamau. Further studies must determine the mine plan, capital requirements and operating costs before BMO’s conceptual production case can be tested.
