October US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 65,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining at 4.2%

03:07 PM EST, 11/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 65,000 in October after a 29,000-jobs gain in September, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% The October employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday. Layoffs intentions rose slightly in October after falling in September, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, with the food sector the largest contributor to the total and economic conditions the most cited reason. Seasonal hiring surged in October on an announcement from Amazon that it intends to hire 300,000 seasonal workers this year. The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 64,000 in October after a jobs gain of 46,000 in September. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 86,000 jobs in October after a matching gain of 86,000 in the previous month, led by the trade, transportation and utilities and education and health services sectors. Initial claims were lower in the mid-October employment survey week than in the mid-September survey week, while insured claims were higher. The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 36% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in October, up from 32% in September. Job openings and hiring both rose in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics's JOLTS report, suggesting increased demand going into October. On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's October consumer confidence survey rose by 2.4 percentage points to 26.7% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" remained at 21.4%, narrowing the gap between the two measures. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in October after a 0.1% gain in September, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to fall to 2.9% from 3.0%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.4 hours.