IEA: Middle East conflict reshapes the energy security landscape in North Africa and the Middle East
智通财经2026/11/06 11:37- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be hindered; this passage handles about a quarter of the world's seaborne crude oil and a fifth of seaborne natural gas trade globally. There is a divergence in the fortunes of resource-rich countries: Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain exports by rerouting pipelines, while economies highly dependent on the strait, such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, suffer significant export losses.
- Oil-producing countries are under double pressure: although oil prices are rising, exports are seriously constrained, leading to a sharp decline in export volumes, while simultaneously domestic shortages of oil, gas, and electricity break out. Iraq faces a steep drop in natural gas supply, with a huge gap in summer electricity needs. Libya, despite holding Africa's largest crude oil reserves, has low fuel self-sufficiency, and attacks on refineries have worsened the power supply crisis.
- Energy importers are seeing their import bills soar, with countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Lebanon facing sharply higher energy procurement costs. The traditional energy subsidy model is becoming unsustainable: subsidies increase energy consumption intensity and place ongoing pressure on public finances, forcing some countries to reduce broad-based subsidies by raising prices.
- War-torn regions are seeing their energy systems verge on collapse. Electricity supply is insufficient in Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza, putting essential public services such as hospitals and water supply under severe strain. Energy shortages further amplify other humanitarian risks, including food insecurity.
- The IEA has proposed a path for transformation: importing countries should develop distributed solar and other renewables; oil producers should diversify pipeline routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; universal subsidies should be replaced with targeted cash support; and cross-border grid interconnections should be enhanced to improve regional emergency energy security.
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