Moderna Q3 revenue up 29% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, raises full-year revenue growth guidance to 15%-25% | Earnings Report Insight

Moderna’s third quarter revenue and profit both significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. The company subsequently raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance sharply from a previous maximum of 10% to a new range of 15% to 25%, with new product volume and international expansion serving as the core growth drivers.

The company’s third quarter revenue grew 29% year-on-year to $1.31 billion, with net profit reaching $162 million, and earnings per share (EPS) at $0.38. Analysts had previously expected an EPS loss of $1.25 and revenue of only about $885 million. Following the announcement, Moderna’s share price surged as much as 10% premarket, with its year-to-date gain exceeding 700%.

CEO Stéphane Bancel stated in an interview prior to the earnings release that the robust third quarter performance was mainly driven by new product launches and a diversified geographic footprint. He noted that the company’s approved next-generation COVID mRNA vaccine and influenza vaccine are gradually contributing greater revenue, while long-term strategic partnerships with the UK, Canada, Australia, and Mexico are providing stable support for international market revenue.

Moderna’s next-generation COVID mRNA vaccine received US FDA approval in May 2025. Bancel explained that, as COVID vaccine contracts are typically finalized in the first quarter, the product only achieved a “small-scale launch” in the US last year, with its “full-year impact” only materializing this year.

The company’s standalone influenza vaccine, mFLUSIVA, received FDA approval in August this year for adults aged 50 to 64, with accelerated approval for those 65 and older. This marks Moderna’s fifth globally approved product. Bancel acknowledged that, because approval came after the annual contracting cycle, the product will see “limited launch” in the US during the 2026–2027 flu seasons, making its contribution to this fiscal year limited.

Additionally, mFLUSIVA has been approved in Canada. The company’s COVID/influenza combination vaccine, mCOFLU, has also been approved in Canada and in the EU under the brand name mCOMBRIAX. It remains under review in markets such as Japan, the UK, and Australia, while US FDA submission is pending further guidance.

In the third quarter, international market revenue stood at $533 million, while US revenue was $780 million, with international earnings accounting for approximately 40% of the total. The company expects roughly half of its full-year 2026 revenue to come from the US market, and the other half from international markets.

Moderna’s strategic international expansion continued apace. In the third quarter, the company executed long-term strategic cooperation agreements with the governments of the UK, Canada, and Australia. In September, Moderna also signed a five-year COVID vaccine partnership with a local Mexican manufacturer, aiming to reinforce recurring revenue streams and expand international coverage.

On the financial front, the company’s cash and investments balance at the end of the third quarter rose to $8 billion, up from $6.9 billion at the end of the second quarter, primarily due to a $3 billion convertible preferred notes issuance completed in September. After deducting capped call purchases and related fees, the net financing was about $2.6 billion. The company raised its expected cash and investments balance at the end of 2026 from the previous forecast of $4.7–$5.2 billion to a new range of $8.1–$8.3 billion.

In October, Moderna and Merck presented positive phase III clinical data for their personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157), at the ESMO (European Society for Medical Oncology) annual meeting. Among patients with resected high-risk melanoma, intismeran combined with Merck’s immunotherapy KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% (HR = 0.58) compared to KEYTRUDA monotherapy, and lowered the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38% (HR = 0.62). In a pre-specified sensitivity analysis, six months after completing the intismeran vaccination regimen, the combination group saw a further 58% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death.

Days before the data release, some trial results were leaked on social media, causing significant short-term stock volatility. Bancel described the market reaction as “unexpected,” but said long-term investors and analysts gave positive feedback after analyzing the complete data, and clinicians were impressed by the results and expressed interest in using the product in practice. The two companies are currently preparing regulatory submissions, with potential commercial launch pending regulatory approval.

Third quarter R&D expenses fell 27% year-on-year to $583 million, mainly due to late-stage infectious disease studies winding down and ongoing comprehensive cost reduction initiatives. Full-year R&D expenses are now expected to be about $2.7 billion, down from the previous guidance of around $2.9 billion, with overall annual operating expenses improving by about $200 million versus prior expectations.

For the norovirus vaccine (mRNA-1403), interim analysis of the phase III trial did not meet early success statistical criteria. The company said it will not initiate additional participant cohorts this quarter and will consult with health regulators on the next development steps.

In rare diseases, the registration study for the propionic acidemia therapy (mRNA-3927) has completed target enrollment, with key data expected in 2026. The decision to launch critical research for methylmalonic acidemia therapy (mRNA-3705) will be evaluated after propionic acidemia data readout.

The company is scheduled to hold an Analyst Day event on November 12, where it is expected to provide further details on pipeline progress and medium- to long-term strategy.