US Dollar Index: Fed path and CPI focus – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note the Dollar Index closed at 102.11, up 0.51%, as markets pivot from strong US payrolls toward October CPI and PPI. Their economists expect softer monthly inflation prints, while year-on-year CPI cannot be calculated due to missing 2025 index levels. They still project 25bp Fed rate hikes in December and March.

Dollar supported by data and Fed

"We move on from payrolls to US inflation as the main macro focus this week, with October CPI tomorrow and PPI on Friday, alongside a busy slate of Fed speakers."

"Our economists expect headline CPI to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, down from 0.65% previously, with core CPI also up 0.20% after 0.33% last time."

"Because October 2025 index levels were not produced during last year’s government shutdown, year-on-year inflation rates cannot be calculated for this release."

"Our economists expect producer prices to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, compared with 0.32% in September, leaving the year-on-year rate broadly steady at 3.1%."

"Our economists continue to expect 25bp rate increases at the December and March FOMC meetings, absent a further material tightening in financial conditions."