Rumor: Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) plan Terafab monthly production of one million wafers, feasibility questioned

According to Golden Ten Data APP, reports indicate that Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) plan to achieve a monthly capacity of 1 million semiconductor wafers at the planned Terafab factory starting in 2032. This target includes approximately 700,000 memory chips per month and over 300,000 logic chips per month. Judging by the planned memory chip capacity alone, it would be comparable to Samsung Electronics’ estimated DRAM capacity of 650,000 to 700,000 wafers per month.

Reports state that earlier this month, procurement staff from Terafab visited Japan to meet with semiconductor equipment suppliers and coordinate orders and delivery schedules. Some Japanese manufacturers were asked to deliver equipment within only a few months. One equipment manufacturer described this timeline as extremely demanding, but said it would strive to meet the deadline.

According to reports, as the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, Musk aims to begin mass production in the second half of 2028. However, even for established chip manufacturers, building an advanced semiconductor plant and achieving mass production typically takes more than three years. Some industry insiders have already voiced doubts about the feasibility of Terafab’s ambitious timeline.

The proposed total capacity is about 40 times the planned capacity of the Rapidus factory in Chitose City, Hokkaido, Japan (25,000 wafers per month). Whether the above companies can secure equipment supplies and accomplish this ambitious production plan remains uncertain at this time.