Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, in his assessment following the recent drop in Bitcoin (BTC) price, suggested that the market has not yet reached its bottom and that further declines may occur in the coming weeks.
Cowen noted that Bitcoin retreated to around $73,500, reaching the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and thus entering the bull market support band. According to the analyst, the short-term rebound from this region does not mean the downtrend has ended.
Cowen, recalling that Bitcoin had previously recovered after finding support at the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) but then fell again, said that a similar movement could occur at the 20-week average as well.
Benjamin Cowen: “Bitcoin Bull Market May Lose Support Band”
Cowen considered a decline below the bull market support band for Bitcoin as the most likely scenario in the coming period.
The analyst stated that this expectation is based on Bitcoin’s historically weak performance in the final quarter of years when US midterm elections take place.
Cowen noted that the correction in the NASDAQ index could also increase selling pressure on Bitcoin, pointing out that in the past, Ethereum and other cryptocurrency market indicators have lost support levels after reaching them in bull markets.
Cowen described the current price movements as a gradual downward trend. According to the analyst, Bitcoin experiences temporary rallies following sharp sell-offs, but these recoveries are followed by renewed selling pressure. Cowen believes this cycle could continue for some time.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s weekly close once again below the 50-week moving average was also among the negative developments highlighted by the analyst.
Cowen recalled that Bitcoin experienced strong gains of approximately 30% in 2019 and 2023 after surpassing the 50-week moving average. He noted that the recent breakout was limited to about 10%, with gains being reversed, suggesting this could be a false upward breakout.
Will Bitcoin’s Real Bottom Be Seen in December?
Cowen, who believes Bitcoin has not yet reached its bottom in the last quarter of 2026, pointed to December as a key month.
The analyst noted that, based on past interest rate hike cycles, Bitcoin tends to weaken around days 58 and 94 following the first interest rate increase.
Cowen noted that the cycle he was examining was currently on day 54, adding that historically, day 94 falls in December.
Recalling that Bitcoin bottomed out in mid-December 2018, the analyst suggested that the upcoming FED meeting could also play a significant role in determining the market’s bottom.
Cowen believes that the possibility of the Fed pausing interest rate hikes could change market expectations, but that selling pressure could continue until that point.
Finally, the analyst stated that investors should avoid emotional reactions to short-term price movements. He pointed out that investors who panic sell during sharp declines can then increase their losses by buying again during subsequent rallies.
