Expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East are rising, but risks of tanker attacks and oil spills in the Hormuz Strait remain

1. Despite market bets that the Iran war may ease, recent attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure continue. On Tuesday, crude oil prices fell to a two-month low after U.S. officials downplayed the need for further military action against Iran; analysts noted that Trump's tone softened following the Republican midterm election setback. However, there has been no significant reduction in attacks in November. According to data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 37 ships were attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the outbreak of the war.2. On Sunday, social media videos showed a Navig8 tanker catching fire near the coast of Oman, with EU satellite images also showing large plumes of black smoke in the same location. Iran’s state broadcaster, citing information from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, stated that the tanker was one of three tankers attacked on Sunday while transiting the strait via “unauthorized routes.” The vessel is managed by Navig8, a company controlled by ADNOC Logistics & Services.3. The U.S. military continues to enforce a maritime blockade on Iranian ports. U.S. Central Command reported that a U.S. military aircraft fired upon and sank a cargo ship flying the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis; the vessel had attempted to leave the relevant waters after visiting an Iranian port on Saturday.4. The attacks in the strait have caused environmental damage, with oil spills from damaged tankers. Verified videos circulating on Monday showed oil reaching the coast of Oman, and satellite images confirmed oil spills along the coasts of Oman and the UAE.5. Other energy and civilian facilities in the Middle East have also been attacked. Iran and its regional allies targeted installations including the Saudi Aramco headquarters. Verified videos showed that after the Houthis claimed to have launched a missile attack on November 8, a Saudi Aramco office building in Riyadh was damaged. According to the Saudi Ministry of Energy, this was a failed attack, with debris causing limited damage and no casualties.6. The International Maritime Organization confirmed that since the outbreak of hostilities in late February, 130 incidents have occurred in the region, most of them attacks, resulting in at least 25 seafarers killed. On Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations office reported another tanker was struck in the northeast waters off Lima, Oman, but did not state the responsible party. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that two tankers caught fire after striking mines while taking “unauthorized routes” through the strait.